Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?
For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signa...
Published in: | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8ae58bf55eeb481c894541aaa66a6e67 2023-05-15T15:07:37+02:00 Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? Uwe Ulbrich Gregor C. Leckebusch Jens Grieger Mareike Schuster Mirseid Akperov Mikhail Yu. Bardin Yang Feng Sergey Gulev Masaru Inatsu Kevin Keay Sarah F. Kew Margarida L.R. Liberato Piero Lionello Igor I. Mokhov Urs Neu Joaquim G. Pinto Christoph C. Raible Marco Reale Irina Rudeva Ian Simmonds Natalia D. Tilinina Isabel F. Trigo Sven Ulbrich Wang 2013-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 https://doaj.org/article/8ae58bf55eeb481c894541aaa66a6e67 EN eng Borntraeger http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 https://doaj.org/toc/0941-2948 0941-2948 doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 https://doaj.org/article/8ae58bf55eeb481c894541aaa66a6e67 Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 61-68 (2013) climate change extra-tropical cyclones echam5 imilast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 2022-12-31T01:54:09Z For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Greenland North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Greenland Pacific Meteorologische Zeitschrift 22 1 61 68 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change extra-tropical cyclones echam5 imilast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change extra-tropical cyclones echam5 imilast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Uwe Ulbrich Gregor C. Leckebusch Jens Grieger Mareike Schuster Mirseid Akperov Mikhail Yu. Bardin Yang Feng Sergey Gulev Masaru Inatsu Kevin Keay Sarah F. Kew Margarida L.R. Liberato Piero Lionello Igor I. Mokhov Urs Neu Joaquim G. Pinto Christoph C. Raible Marco Reale Irina Rudeva Ian Simmonds Natalia D. Tilinina Isabel F. Trigo Sven Ulbrich Wang Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? |
topic_facet |
climate change extra-tropical cyclones echam5 imilast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Uwe Ulbrich Gregor C. Leckebusch Jens Grieger Mareike Schuster Mirseid Akperov Mikhail Yu. Bardin Yang Feng Sergey Gulev Masaru Inatsu Kevin Keay Sarah F. Kew Margarida L.R. Liberato Piero Lionello Igor I. Mokhov Urs Neu Joaquim G. Pinto Christoph C. Raible Marco Reale Irina Rudeva Ian Simmonds Natalia D. Tilinina Isabel F. Trigo Sven Ulbrich Wang |
author_facet |
Uwe Ulbrich Gregor C. Leckebusch Jens Grieger Mareike Schuster Mirseid Akperov Mikhail Yu. Bardin Yang Feng Sergey Gulev Masaru Inatsu Kevin Keay Sarah F. Kew Margarida L.R. Liberato Piero Lionello Igor I. Mokhov Urs Neu Joaquim G. Pinto Christoph C. Raible Marco Reale Irina Rudeva Ian Simmonds Natalia D. Tilinina Isabel F. Trigo Sven Ulbrich Wang |
author_sort |
Uwe Ulbrich |
title |
Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? |
title_short |
Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? |
title_full |
Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? |
title_fullStr |
Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? |
title_sort |
are greenhouse gas signals of northern hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm? |
publisher |
Borntraeger |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 https://doaj.org/article/8ae58bf55eeb481c894541aaa66a6e67 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Greenland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Greenland North Atlantic |
op_source |
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 61-68 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 https://doaj.org/toc/0941-2948 0941-2948 doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 https://doaj.org/article/8ae58bf55eeb481c894541aaa66a6e67 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 |
container_title |
Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
61 |
op_container_end_page |
68 |
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1766339078866862080 |