High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections

• Published in: Scientific Data
• Main Authors: Hylke E. Beck, Tim R. McVicar, Noemi Vergopolan, Alexis Berg, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Ambroise Dufour, Zhenzhong Zeng, Xin Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Diego G. Miralles
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2023
• Subjects: Science; Q; Geiger; Koppen; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02549-6; https://doaj.org/article/89d396cc664b44a99a2dff1d7dddf6d5

Abstract We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (encompassing 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. We estimate that from 1901–1930 to 1991–2020, approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned to a different major Köppen-Geiger class. Furthermore, we project that from 1991–2020 to 2071–2099, 5% of the land surface will transition to a different major class under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% under the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 13% under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. The Köppen-Geiger maps, along with associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for the CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen .