An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point
Our recently developed tool, called Directed Affinity Segmentation (DAS), was originally designed for the data-driven discovery of coherent sets in fluidic systems. Here we interpret that it can also be used to indicate early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves as seen from remote s...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:89ba2bd1785f457e87f61534b0acef16 2023-05-15T13:41:38+02:00 An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point A. A. AlMomani E. Bollt 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 https://doaj.org/article/89ba2bd1785f457e87f61534b0acef16 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/28/153/2021/npg-28-153-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/89ba2bd1785f457e87f61534b0acef16 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 28, Pp 153-166 (2021) Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 2022-12-31T06:28:18Z Our recently developed tool, called Directed Affinity Segmentation (DAS), was originally designed for the data-driven discovery of coherent sets in fluidic systems. Here we interpret that it can also be used to indicate early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves as seen from remote sensing data. We apply a directed spectral clustering methodology, including an asymmetric affinity matrix and the associated directed graph Laplacian, to reprocess the ice velocity data and remote sensing satellite images of the Larsen C ice shelf. Our tool has enabled the simulated prediction of historical events from historical data and fault lines responsible for the critical transitions leading to the breakup of the Larsen C ice shelf crack, which resulted in the A-68 iceberg. Such benchmarking of methods, using data from the past to forecast events that are now also in the past, is sometimes called post-casting, analogous to forecasting into the future. Our method indicated the coming crisis months before the actual occurrence. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 28 1 153 166 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 A. A. AlMomani E. Bollt An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
topic_facet |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Our recently developed tool, called Directed Affinity Segmentation (DAS), was originally designed for the data-driven discovery of coherent sets in fluidic systems. Here we interpret that it can also be used to indicate early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves as seen from remote sensing data. We apply a directed spectral clustering methodology, including an asymmetric affinity matrix and the associated directed graph Laplacian, to reprocess the ice velocity data and remote sensing satellite images of the Larsen C ice shelf. Our tool has enabled the simulated prediction of historical events from historical data and fault lines responsible for the critical transitions leading to the breakup of the Larsen C ice shelf crack, which resulted in the A-68 iceberg. Such benchmarking of methods, using data from the past to forecast events that are now also in the past, is sometimes called post-casting, analogous to forecasting into the future. Our method indicated the coming crisis months before the actual occurrence. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. A. AlMomani E. Bollt |
author_facet |
A. A. AlMomani E. Bollt |
author_sort |
A. A. AlMomani |
title |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_short |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_full |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_fullStr |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_full_unstemmed |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_sort |
early warning sign of critical transition in the antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 https://doaj.org/article/89ba2bd1785f457e87f61534b0acef16 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
op_source |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 28, Pp 153-166 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/28/153/2021/npg-28-153-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/89ba2bd1785f457e87f61534b0acef16 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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28 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
153 |
op_container_end_page |
166 |
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1766153233962631168 |