A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models
Increased solar absorption is an important driver of Arctic Amplification, the interconnected set of processes and feedbacks by which Arctic temperatures respond more rapidly than global temperatures to climate forcing. The amount of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic is strongly modulated by seasonal...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d 2023-05-15T13:10:22+02:00 A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models Anne Sledd Tristan S. L’Ecuyer 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.769844 https://doaj.org/article/89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.769844/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 2296-6463 doi:10.3389/feart.2021.769844 https://doaj.org/article/89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021) arctic climate change solar absorption clouds sea ice albedo Science Q article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.769844 2022-12-31T07:38:03Z Increased solar absorption is an important driver of Arctic Amplification, the interconnected set of processes and feedbacks by which Arctic temperatures respond more rapidly than global temperatures to climate forcing. The amount of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic is strongly modulated by seasonal ice and snow cover. Sea ice declines and shorter periods of seasonal snow cover in recent decades have increased solar absorption, amplifying local warming relative to the planet as a whole. However, this Arctic albedo feedback would be substantially larger in the absence of the ubiquitous cloud cover that exists throughout the region. Clouds have been observed to mask the effects of reduced surface albedo and slow the emergence of secular trends in net solar absorption. Applying analogous metrics to several models from the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that ambiguity in the influence of clouds on predicted Arctic solar absorption trends has increased relative to the previous generation of climate models despite better agreement with the observed albedo sensitivity to sea ice variations. Arctic albedo responses to sea ice loss are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in all summer months. This agrees better with observations, but models still slightly underestimate albedo sensitivity to sea ice changes relative to observations. Never-the-less, nearly all CMIP6 models predict that the Arctic is now absorbing more solar radiation than at the start of the century, consistent with recent observations. In fact, many CMIP6 models simulate trends that are too strong relative to internal variability, and spread in predicted Arctic albedo changes has increased since CMIP5. This increased uncertainty can be traced to increased ambiguity in how clouds influence natural and forced variations in Arctic solar absorption. While nearly all CMIP5 models agreed with observations that clouds delay the emergence of forced trends, about half of CMIP6 models suggest that clouds accelerate their emergence from ... Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Climate change Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Frontiers in Earth Science 9 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic climate change solar absorption clouds sea ice albedo Science Q |
spellingShingle |
arctic climate change solar absorption clouds sea ice albedo Science Q Anne Sledd Tristan S. L’Ecuyer A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models |
topic_facet |
arctic climate change solar absorption clouds sea ice albedo Science Q |
description |
Increased solar absorption is an important driver of Arctic Amplification, the interconnected set of processes and feedbacks by which Arctic temperatures respond more rapidly than global temperatures to climate forcing. The amount of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic is strongly modulated by seasonal ice and snow cover. Sea ice declines and shorter periods of seasonal snow cover in recent decades have increased solar absorption, amplifying local warming relative to the planet as a whole. However, this Arctic albedo feedback would be substantially larger in the absence of the ubiquitous cloud cover that exists throughout the region. Clouds have been observed to mask the effects of reduced surface albedo and slow the emergence of secular trends in net solar absorption. Applying analogous metrics to several models from the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that ambiguity in the influence of clouds on predicted Arctic solar absorption trends has increased relative to the previous generation of climate models despite better agreement with the observed albedo sensitivity to sea ice variations. Arctic albedo responses to sea ice loss are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in all summer months. This agrees better with observations, but models still slightly underestimate albedo sensitivity to sea ice changes relative to observations. Never-the-less, nearly all CMIP6 models predict that the Arctic is now absorbing more solar radiation than at the start of the century, consistent with recent observations. In fact, many CMIP6 models simulate trends that are too strong relative to internal variability, and spread in predicted Arctic albedo changes has increased since CMIP5. This increased uncertainty can be traced to increased ambiguity in how clouds influence natural and forced variations in Arctic solar absorption. While nearly all CMIP5 models agreed with observations that clouds delay the emergence of forced trends, about half of CMIP6 models suggest that clouds accelerate their emergence from ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anne Sledd Tristan S. L’Ecuyer |
author_facet |
Anne Sledd Tristan S. L’Ecuyer |
author_sort |
Anne Sledd |
title |
A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
cloudier picture of ice-albedo feedback in cmip6 models |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.769844 https://doaj.org/article/89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.769844/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 2296-6463 doi:10.3389/feart.2021.769844 https://doaj.org/article/89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.769844 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Earth Science |
container_volume |
9 |
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1766227069628317696 |