Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China.
Shigellosis is a heavy disease burden in China especially in children aged under 5 years. However, the age-related factors involved in transmission of shigellosis are unclear. An age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to shigellosis surveillance...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 https://doaj.org/article/8988c47a8c184364b7ae15950d4aea12 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8988c47a8c184364b7ae15950d4aea12 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8988c47a8c184364b7ae15950d4aea12 2023-05-15T15:15:02+02:00 Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China. Zeyu Zhao Qi Chen Yao Wang Meijie Chu Qingqing Hu Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah Jia Rui Xingchun Liu Yunhan Yu Fuwei Zhao Zhengyun Ren Shanshan Yu Ran An Lili Pan Yi-Chen Chiang Benhua Zhao Yanhua Su Bin Zhao Tianmu Chen 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 https://doaj.org/article/8988c47a8c184364b7ae15950d4aea12 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 https://doaj.org/article/8988c47a8c184364b7ae15950d4aea12 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0009501 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 2022-12-31T11:41:09Z Shigellosis is a heavy disease burden in China especially in children aged under 5 years. However, the age-related factors involved in transmission of shigellosis are unclear. An age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to shigellosis surveillance data maintained by Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2005 to 2017. The individuals were divided into four age groups (≤ 5 years, 6-24 years, 25-59 years, and ≥ 60 years). The effective reproduction number (Reff), including infectivity (RI) and susceptibility (RS) was calculated to assess the transmissibility of different age groups. From 2005 to 2017, 130,768 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model fitted well with the reported data (P < 0.001). The highest transmissibility (Reff) was from ≤ 5 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34-1.17), followed by from the 6-24 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.35-1.02), from the ≥ 60 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.29-0.86), and from the 25-59 years to 25-59 years (mean: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.21-0.78). The highest infectivity was in ≤ 5 years (RI = 1.71), and was most commonly transmitted to the 25-59 years (45.11%). The highest susceptibility was in the 25-59 years (RS = 2.51), and their most common source was the ≤ 5 years (30.15%). Furthermore, "knock out" simulation predicted the greatest reduction in the number of cases occurred by when cutting off transmission routes among ≤ 5 years and from 25-59 years to ≤ 5 years. Transmission in ≤ 5 years occurred mainly within the group, but infections were most commonly introduced by individuals in the 25-59 years. Infectivity was highest in the ≤ 5 years and susceptibility was highest in the 25-59 years. Interventions to stop transmission should be directed at these age groups. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 6 e0009501 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Zeyu Zhao Qi Chen Yao Wang Meijie Chu Qingqing Hu Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah Jia Rui Xingchun Liu Yunhan Yu Fuwei Zhao Zhengyun Ren Shanshan Yu Ran An Lili Pan Yi-Chen Chiang Benhua Zhao Yanhua Su Bin Zhao Tianmu Chen Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Shigellosis is a heavy disease burden in China especially in children aged under 5 years. However, the age-related factors involved in transmission of shigellosis are unclear. An age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to shigellosis surveillance data maintained by Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2005 to 2017. The individuals were divided into four age groups (≤ 5 years, 6-24 years, 25-59 years, and ≥ 60 years). The effective reproduction number (Reff), including infectivity (RI) and susceptibility (RS) was calculated to assess the transmissibility of different age groups. From 2005 to 2017, 130,768 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model fitted well with the reported data (P < 0.001). The highest transmissibility (Reff) was from ≤ 5 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34-1.17), followed by from the 6-24 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.35-1.02), from the ≥ 60 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.29-0.86), and from the 25-59 years to 25-59 years (mean: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.21-0.78). The highest infectivity was in ≤ 5 years (RI = 1.71), and was most commonly transmitted to the 25-59 years (45.11%). The highest susceptibility was in the 25-59 years (RS = 2.51), and their most common source was the ≤ 5 years (30.15%). Furthermore, "knock out" simulation predicted the greatest reduction in the number of cases occurred by when cutting off transmission routes among ≤ 5 years and from 25-59 years to ≤ 5 years. Transmission in ≤ 5 years occurred mainly within the group, but infections were most commonly introduced by individuals in the 25-59 years. Infectivity was highest in the ≤ 5 years and susceptibility was highest in the 25-59 years. Interventions to stop transmission should be directed at these age groups. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zeyu Zhao Qi Chen Yao Wang Meijie Chu Qingqing Hu Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah Jia Rui Xingchun Liu Yunhan Yu Fuwei Zhao Zhengyun Ren Shanshan Yu Ran An Lili Pan Yi-Chen Chiang Benhua Zhao Yanhua Su Bin Zhao Tianmu Chen |
author_facet |
Zeyu Zhao Qi Chen Yao Wang Meijie Chu Qingqing Hu Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah Jia Rui Xingchun Liu Yunhan Yu Fuwei Zhao Zhengyun Ren Shanshan Yu Ran An Lili Pan Yi-Chen Chiang Benhua Zhao Yanhua Su Bin Zhao Tianmu Chen |
author_sort |
Zeyu Zhao |
title |
Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China. |
title_short |
Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China. |
title_full |
Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China. |
title_fullStr |
Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China. |
title_sort |
relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: a modeling study in hubei province, china. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 https://doaj.org/article/8988c47a8c184364b7ae15950d4aea12 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0009501 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 https://doaj.org/article/8988c47a8c184364b7ae15950d4aea12 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009501 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0009501 |
_version_ |
1766345417952329728 |