Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability
Abstract The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contribu...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8914717a1ea9486cb0b23b238ff0c9ae 2024-09-15T18:23:12+00:00 Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability Wenhao Dong Yi Ming Yi Deng Zhaoyi Shen 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x https://doaj.org/article/8914717a1ea9486cb0b23b238ff0c9ae EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/8914717a1ea9486cb0b23b238ff0c9ae Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2024) Science Q article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x 2024-08-05T17:49:19Z Abstract The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nature Communications 15 1 |
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Science Q Wenhao Dong Yi Ming Yi Deng Zhaoyi Shen Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
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Abstract The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wenhao Dong Yi Ming Yi Deng Zhaoyi Shen |
author_facet |
Wenhao Dong Yi Ming Yi Deng Zhaoyi Shen |
author_sort |
Wenhao Dong |
title |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_short |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_full |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_fullStr |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_sort |
recent wetting trend over taklamakan and gobi desert dominated by internal variability |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x https://doaj.org/article/8914717a1ea9486cb0b23b238ff0c9ae |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/8914717a1ea9486cb0b23b238ff0c9ae |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
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15 |
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1 |
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1810463362756116480 |