Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in the Hubei province of China. Since then, it has spread practically all over the world, disrupting many human activities. In temperate clim...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:88dc82c9110341d4a80b0c9bc43f2206 2023-12-03T10:22:45+01:00 Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy Andrea Murari Michela Gelfusa Teddy Craciunescu Claudio Gelfusa Pasquale Gaudio Gianluigi Bovesecchi Riccardo Rossi 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389 https://doaj.org/article/88dc82c9110341d4a80b0c9bc43f2206 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-2565 2296-2565 doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389 https://doaj.org/article/88dc82c9110341d4a80b0c9bc43f2206 Frontiers in Public Health, Vol 11 (2023) COVID-19 air quality pollutants particulate wind public policies Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389 2023-11-05T01:43:52Z The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in the Hubei province of China. Since then, it has spread practically all over the world, disrupting many human activities. In temperate climates overwhelming evidence indicates that its incidence increases significantly during the cold season. Italy was one of the first nations, in which COVID-19 reached epidemic proportions, already at the beginning of 2020. There is therefore enough data to perform a systematic investigation of the correlation between the spread of the virus and the environmental conditions. The objective of this study is the investigation of the relationship between the virus diffusion and the weather, including temperature, wind, humidity and air quality, before the rollout of any vaccine and including rapid variation of the pollutants (not only their long term effects as reported in the literature). Regarding them methodology, given the complexity of the problem and the sparse data, robust statistical tools based on ranking (Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients) and innovative dynamical system analysis techniques (recurrence plots) have been deployed to disentangle the different influences. In terms of results, the evidence indicates that, even if temperature plays a fundamental role, the morbidity of COVID-19 depends also on other factors. At the aggregate level of major cities, air pollution and the environmental quantities affecting it, particularly the wind intensity, have no negligible effect. This evidence should motivate a rethinking of the public policies related to the containment of this type of airborne infectious diseases, particularly information gathering and traffic management. Article in Journal/Newspaper First Nations Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Frontiers in Public Health 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
COVID-19 air quality pollutants particulate wind public policies Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
COVID-19 air quality pollutants particulate wind public policies Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Andrea Murari Michela Gelfusa Teddy Craciunescu Claudio Gelfusa Pasquale Gaudio Gianluigi Bovesecchi Riccardo Rossi Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy |
topic_facet |
COVID-19 air quality pollutants particulate wind public policies Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in the Hubei province of China. Since then, it has spread practically all over the world, disrupting many human activities. In temperate climates overwhelming evidence indicates that its incidence increases significantly during the cold season. Italy was one of the first nations, in which COVID-19 reached epidemic proportions, already at the beginning of 2020. There is therefore enough data to perform a systematic investigation of the correlation between the spread of the virus and the environmental conditions. The objective of this study is the investigation of the relationship between the virus diffusion and the weather, including temperature, wind, humidity and air quality, before the rollout of any vaccine and including rapid variation of the pollutants (not only their long term effects as reported in the literature). Regarding them methodology, given the complexity of the problem and the sparse data, robust statistical tools based on ranking (Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients) and innovative dynamical system analysis techniques (recurrence plots) have been deployed to disentangle the different influences. In terms of results, the evidence indicates that, even if temperature plays a fundamental role, the morbidity of COVID-19 depends also on other factors. At the aggregate level of major cities, air pollution and the environmental quantities affecting it, particularly the wind intensity, have no negligible effect. This evidence should motivate a rethinking of the public policies related to the containment of this type of airborne infectious diseases, particularly information gathering and traffic management. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andrea Murari Michela Gelfusa Teddy Craciunescu Claudio Gelfusa Pasquale Gaudio Gianluigi Bovesecchi Riccardo Rossi |
author_facet |
Andrea Murari Michela Gelfusa Teddy Craciunescu Claudio Gelfusa Pasquale Gaudio Gianluigi Bovesecchi Riccardo Rossi |
author_sort |
Andrea Murari |
title |
Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy |
title_short |
Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy |
title_full |
Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy |
title_fullStr |
Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy |
title_sort |
effects of environmental conditions on covid-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in italy |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389 https://doaj.org/article/88dc82c9110341d4a80b0c9bc43f2206 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) |
geographic |
Kendall |
geographic_facet |
Kendall |
genre |
First Nations |
genre_facet |
First Nations |
op_source |
Frontiers in Public Health, Vol 11 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-2565 2296-2565 doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389 https://doaj.org/article/88dc82c9110341d4a80b0c9bc43f2206 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Public Health |
container_volume |
11 |
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