Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes
The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes i...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8858fea6df014c8db8de11698b341fdc 2023-09-05T13:17:48+02:00 Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Eli Mitchell-Larson Gabriel A Vecchi Hylke de Vries Robert Vautard Friederike Otto 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 https://doaj.org/article/8858fea6df014c8db8de11698b341fdc EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8858fea6df014c8db8de11698b341fdc Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 11, p 114004 (2019) cold outbreaks global warming northern midlatitudes Europe North America cold extremes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 2023-08-13T00:37:22Z The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the variability of cold waves is large compared to anthropogenic warming. In order to detect changes in cold spells, two complementary ways to optimise the signal-to-noise ratio are employed: multi-decadal series at individual stations, and for shorter time periods by using spatially aggregated measures. Global warming is now strong enough to make trends clear at individual stations when considering long enough (>50 yr) records of daily minimum and maximum temperature. Calculating the land area that has temperatures below the 1-in-10 year return value (defined over 1951–1980) enables us to investigate trends over a shorter time horizon. The long-term station data have strong decreases everywhere in the lowest minimum temperature. Warming trends in the lowest maximum temperature are smaller over most of the Northern Hemisphere, with dataset-dependent indications of possible negative trends in parts of the United States and Mexico. Considering the area experiencing cold waves over the last decades, the most notable feature is a sharp decline of this area since the 1980s. The natural variability is still so large that it is possible to arbitrarily select starting dates after the decline for which the trend is slightly positive in smaller regions like North America or Europe. However, these values are within uncertainties compatible with a steady decline and have differing starting dates in North America and Europe. An analysis of the entire northern midlatitudes confirms the steady decrease in severity and frequency of cold waves over the last decades in the observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 14 11 114004 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
cold outbreaks global warming northern midlatitudes Europe North America cold extremes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
cold outbreaks global warming northern midlatitudes Europe North America cold extremes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Eli Mitchell-Larson Gabriel A Vecchi Hylke de Vries Robert Vautard Friederike Otto Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes |
topic_facet |
cold outbreaks global warming northern midlatitudes Europe North America cold extremes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the variability of cold waves is large compared to anthropogenic warming. In order to detect changes in cold spells, two complementary ways to optimise the signal-to-noise ratio are employed: multi-decadal series at individual stations, and for shorter time periods by using spatially aggregated measures. Global warming is now strong enough to make trends clear at individual stations when considering long enough (>50 yr) records of daily minimum and maximum temperature. Calculating the land area that has temperatures below the 1-in-10 year return value (defined over 1951–1980) enables us to investigate trends over a shorter time horizon. The long-term station data have strong decreases everywhere in the lowest minimum temperature. Warming trends in the lowest maximum temperature are smaller over most of the Northern Hemisphere, with dataset-dependent indications of possible negative trends in parts of the United States and Mexico. Considering the area experiencing cold waves over the last decades, the most notable feature is a sharp decline of this area since the 1980s. The natural variability is still so large that it is possible to arbitrarily select starting dates after the decline for which the trend is slightly positive in smaller regions like North America or Europe. However, these values are within uncertainties compatible with a steady decline and have differing starting dates in North America and Europe. An analysis of the entire northern midlatitudes confirms the steady decrease in severity and frequency of cold waves over the last decades in the observations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Eli Mitchell-Larson Gabriel A Vecchi Hylke de Vries Robert Vautard Friederike Otto |
author_facet |
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Eli Mitchell-Larson Gabriel A Vecchi Hylke de Vries Robert Vautard Friederike Otto |
author_sort |
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh |
title |
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes |
title_short |
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes |
title_full |
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes |
title_fullStr |
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes |
title_sort |
cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 https://doaj.org/article/8858fea6df014c8db8de11698b341fdc |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 11, p 114004 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8858fea6df014c8db8de11698b341fdc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
114004 |
_version_ |
1776198836434239488 |