Drivers of the dynamics of the spread of cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2000-2018: An eco-epidemiological study.

• Published in: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
• Main Authors: Harry César Kayembe, Didier Bompangue, Catherine Linard, Bien-Aimé Mandja, Doudou Batumbo, Muriel Matunga, Jérémie Muwonga, Michel Moutschen, Hippolyte Situakibanza, Pierre Ozer
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2023
• Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011597; https://doaj.org/article/87aacb2297694291aaca0bb5ad90195e

Background The dynamics of the spread of cholera epidemics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), from east to west and within western DRC, have been extensively studied. However, the drivers of these spread processes remain unclear. We therefore sought to better understand the factors associated with these spread dynamics and their potential underlying mechanisms. Methods In this eco-epidemiological study, we focused on the spread processes of cholera epidemics originating from the shores of Lake Kivu, involving the areas bordering Lake Kivu, the areas surrounding the lake areas, and the areas out of endemic eastern DRC (eastern and western non-endemic provinces). Over the period 2000-2018, we collected data on suspected cholera cases, and a set of several variables including types of conflicts, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), population density, transportation network density, and accessibility indicators. Using multivariate ordinal logistic regression models, we identified factors associated with the spread of cholera outside the endemic eastern DRC. We performed multivariate Vector Auto Regressive models to analyze potential underlying mechanisms involving the factors associated with these spread dynamics. Finally, we classified the affected health zones using hierarchical ascendant classification based on principal component analysis (PCA). Findings The increase in the number of suspected cholera cases, the exacerbation of conflict events, and the number of IDPs in eastern endemic areas were associated with an increased risk of cholera spreading outside the endemic eastern provinces. We found that the increase in suspected cholera cases was influenced by the increase in battles at lag of 4 weeks, which were influenced by the violence against civilians with a 1-week lag. The violent conflict events influenced the increase in the number of IDPs 4 to 6 weeks later. Other influences and uni- or bidirectional causal links were observed between violent and non-violent conflicts, and ...