The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation
An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilat...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:879acfc7c6fd46d7b5dfe5e7ef2e0bf8 2023-05-15T14:43:52+02:00 The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation E. Crespin H. Goosse T. Fichefet M. E. Mann 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/879acfc7c6fd46d7b5dfe5e7ef2e0bf8 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/5/389/2009/cp-5-389-2009.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/879acfc7c6fd46d7b5dfe5e7ef2e0bf8 Climate of the Past, Vol 5, Iss 3, Pp 389-401 (2009) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2009 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T08:09:36Z An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Siberia Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 E. Crespin H. Goosse T. Fichefet M. E. Mann The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. Crespin H. Goosse T. Fichefet M. E. Mann |
author_facet |
E. Crespin H. Goosse T. Fichefet M. E. Mann |
author_sort |
E. Crespin |
title |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_short |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_full |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_fullStr |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_sort |
15th century arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/879acfc7c6fd46d7b5dfe5e7ef2e0bf8 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Siberia |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 5, Iss 3, Pp 389-401 (2009) |
op_relation |
http://www.clim-past.net/5/389/2009/cp-5-389-2009.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/879acfc7c6fd46d7b5dfe5e7ef2e0bf8 |
_version_ |
1766315459893788672 |