Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation
An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temp...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:87917d3e6ab8404fa422d72129265e27 2023-09-05T13:23:07+02:00 Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation Francois Engelbrecht Jimmy Adegoke Mary-Jane Bopape Mogesh Naidoo Rebecca Garland Marcus Thatcher John McGregor Jack Katzfey Micha Werner Charles Ichoku Charles Gatebe 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 https://doaj.org/article/87917d3e6ab8404fa422d72129265e27 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/87917d3e6ab8404fa422d72129265e27 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 8, p 085004 (2015) climate change African temperatures regional climate model projections heat-waves high fire-danger days drought index Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 2023-08-13T00:37:54Z An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4–6 °C over the subtropics and 3–5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 10 8 085004 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change African temperatures regional climate model projections heat-waves high fire-danger days drought index Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change African temperatures regional climate model projections heat-waves high fire-danger days drought index Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Francois Engelbrecht Jimmy Adegoke Mary-Jane Bopape Mogesh Naidoo Rebecca Garland Marcus Thatcher John McGregor Jack Katzfey Micha Werner Charles Ichoku Charles Gatebe Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation |
topic_facet |
climate change African temperatures regional climate model projections heat-waves high fire-danger days drought index Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4–6 °C over the subtropics and 3–5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Francois Engelbrecht Jimmy Adegoke Mary-Jane Bopape Mogesh Naidoo Rebecca Garland Marcus Thatcher John McGregor Jack Katzfey Micha Werner Charles Ichoku Charles Gatebe |
author_facet |
Francois Engelbrecht Jimmy Adegoke Mary-Jane Bopape Mogesh Naidoo Rebecca Garland Marcus Thatcher John McGregor Jack Katzfey Micha Werner Charles Ichoku Charles Gatebe |
author_sort |
Francois Engelbrecht |
title |
Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation |
title_short |
Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation |
title_full |
Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation |
title_fullStr |
Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation |
title_sort |
projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over africa under low mitigation |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 https://doaj.org/article/87917d3e6ab8404fa422d72129265e27 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 8, p 085004 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/87917d3e6ab8404fa422d72129265e27 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
085004 |
_version_ |
1776203700035911680 |