Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c
Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) intergla...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:86ae94df71844e53976292394aef2c7d 2023-05-15T14:00:08+02:00 Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c M. Mas e Braga J. Bernales M. Prange A. P. Stroeven I. Rogozhina 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 https://doaj.org/article/86ae94df71844e53976292394aef2c7d EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/459/2021/tc-15-459-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/86ae94df71844e53976292394aef2c7d The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 459-478 (2021) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 2022-12-31T13:44:26Z Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘ C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica ice core Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic East Antarctic Ice Sheet The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 15 1 459 478 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 M. Mas e Braga J. Bernales M. Prange A. P. Stroeven I. Rogozhina Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘ C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Mas e Braga J. Bernales M. Prange A. P. Stroeven I. Rogozhina |
author_facet |
M. Mas e Braga J. Bernales M. Prange A. P. Stroeven I. Rogozhina |
author_sort |
M. Mas e Braga |
title |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_short |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_full |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_sort |
sensitivity of the antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 https://doaj.org/article/86ae94df71844e53976292394aef2c7d |
geographic |
Antarctic East Antarctic Ice Sheet The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic East Antarctic Ice Sheet The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica ice core Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica ice core Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 459-478 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/459/2021/tc-15-459-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/86ae94df71844e53976292394aef2c7d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
459 |
op_container_end_page |
478 |
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1766269136823910400 |