The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand
The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity of power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture the influence of meteorological variability on the European energy sector. For each weather regime, the associated changes to winte...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:86922fa5481841c5b203d8fc4e92d7b6 2023-09-05T13:21:37+02:00 The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand Karin van der Wiel Hannah C Bloomfield Robert W Lee Laurens P Stoop Russell Blackport James A Screen Frank M Selten 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 https://doaj.org/article/86922fa5481841c5b203d8fc4e92d7b6 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/86922fa5481841c5b203d8fc4e92d7b6 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 9, p 094010 (2019) energy meteorology energy transition renewable energy weather regimes wind energy solar energy Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 2023-08-13T00:37:22Z The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity of power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture the influence of meteorological variability on the European energy sector. For each weather regime, the associated changes to wintertime—mean and extreme—wind and solar power production, temperature-driven energy demand and energy shortfall (residual load) are explored. Days with a blocked circulation pattern, i.e. the ‘Scandinavian Blocking’ and ‘North Atlantic Oscillation negative’ regimes, on average have lower than normal renewable power production, higher than normal energy demand and therefore, higher than normal energy shortfall. These average effects hide large variability of energy parameters within each weather regime. Though the risk of extreme high energy shortfall events increases in the two blocked regimes (by a factor of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), it is shown that such events occur in all regimes. Extreme high energy shortfall events are the result of rare circulation types and smaller-scale features, rather than extreme magnitudes of common large-scale circulation types. In fact, these events resemble each other more strongly than their respective weather regime mean pattern. For (sub-)seasonal forecasting applications weather regimes may be of use for the energy sector. At shorter lead times or for more detailed system analyses, their ineffectiveness at characterising extreme events limits their potential. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 14 9 094010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
energy meteorology energy transition renewable energy weather regimes wind energy solar energy Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
energy meteorology energy transition renewable energy weather regimes wind energy solar energy Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Karin van der Wiel Hannah C Bloomfield Robert W Lee Laurens P Stoop Russell Blackport James A Screen Frank M Selten The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand |
topic_facet |
energy meteorology energy transition renewable energy weather regimes wind energy solar energy Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity of power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture the influence of meteorological variability on the European energy sector. For each weather regime, the associated changes to wintertime—mean and extreme—wind and solar power production, temperature-driven energy demand and energy shortfall (residual load) are explored. Days with a blocked circulation pattern, i.e. the ‘Scandinavian Blocking’ and ‘North Atlantic Oscillation negative’ regimes, on average have lower than normal renewable power production, higher than normal energy demand and therefore, higher than normal energy shortfall. These average effects hide large variability of energy parameters within each weather regime. Though the risk of extreme high energy shortfall events increases in the two blocked regimes (by a factor of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), it is shown that such events occur in all regimes. Extreme high energy shortfall events are the result of rare circulation types and smaller-scale features, rather than extreme magnitudes of common large-scale circulation types. In fact, these events resemble each other more strongly than their respective weather regime mean pattern. For (sub-)seasonal forecasting applications weather regimes may be of use for the energy sector. At shorter lead times or for more detailed system analyses, their ineffectiveness at characterising extreme events limits their potential. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Karin van der Wiel Hannah C Bloomfield Robert W Lee Laurens P Stoop Russell Blackport James A Screen Frank M Selten |
author_facet |
Karin van der Wiel Hannah C Bloomfield Robert W Lee Laurens P Stoop Russell Blackport James A Screen Frank M Selten |
author_sort |
Karin van der Wiel |
title |
The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand |
title_short |
The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand |
title_full |
The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand |
title_fullStr |
The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand |
title_full_unstemmed |
The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand |
title_sort |
influence of weather regimes on european renewable energy production and demand |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 https://doaj.org/article/86922fa5481841c5b203d8fc4e92d7b6 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 9, p 094010 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/86922fa5481841c5b203d8fc4e92d7b6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094010 |
_version_ |
1776202207352324096 |