Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models
Climate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to climate cha...
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Cambridge University Press
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:863517e8c9144ab5b363261df7169e68 2023-05-15T16:57:34+02:00 Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models Mira Khadka Rijan Bhakta Kayastha Rakesh Kayastha 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 https://doaj.org/article/863517e8c9144ab5b363261df7169e68 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143020000519/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2020.51 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/863517e8c9144ab5b363261df7169e68 Journal of Glaciology, Vol 66, Pp 831-845 (2020) Climatic variability glacier dynamics modelling glacio-hydrological modelling Koshi River basin Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 2023-03-12T01:30:57Z Climate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to climate change until 2100. The study area comprises six sub-basins of glacierized Koshi River basin covering Nepalese and Chinese territories. The output from OGGM is provided as input to GDM along with the spatial and hydro-meteorological data. The average glacier area change in all the sub-basins from 2021 to 2100 is estimated as 65 and 85% decrease and the average glacier volume change is estimated as 76 and 86% decrease for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The future simulated discharge shows an increasing trend in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons and a decreasing trend in post-monsoon and winter seasons after 2060 in all the sub-basins, which can lead to wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons in the far future. A shift in peak flow is observed from August to July in most of the sub-basins. The coupled modelling technique used in this study can largely improve our understanding of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Journal of Glaciology 66 259 831 845 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climatic variability glacier dynamics modelling glacio-hydrological modelling Koshi River basin Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Climatic variability glacier dynamics modelling glacio-hydrological modelling Koshi River basin Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Mira Khadka Rijan Bhakta Kayastha Rakesh Kayastha Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
topic_facet |
Climatic variability glacier dynamics modelling glacio-hydrological modelling Koshi River basin Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Climate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to climate change until 2100. The study area comprises six sub-basins of glacierized Koshi River basin covering Nepalese and Chinese territories. The output from OGGM is provided as input to GDM along with the spatial and hydro-meteorological data. The average glacier area change in all the sub-basins from 2021 to 2100 is estimated as 65 and 85% decrease and the average glacier volume change is estimated as 76 and 86% decrease for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The future simulated discharge shows an increasing trend in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons and a decreasing trend in post-monsoon and winter seasons after 2060 in all the sub-basins, which can lead to wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons in the far future. A shift in peak flow is observed from August to July in most of the sub-basins. The coupled modelling technique used in this study can largely improve our understanding of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mira Khadka Rijan Bhakta Kayastha Rakesh Kayastha |
author_facet |
Mira Khadka Rijan Bhakta Kayastha Rakesh Kayastha |
author_sort |
Mira Khadka |
title |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_short |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_full |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_fullStr |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_sort |
future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in koshi river basin, central himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 https://doaj.org/article/863517e8c9144ab5b363261df7169e68 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, Vol 66, Pp 831-845 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143020000519/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2020.51 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/863517e8c9144ab5b363261df7169e68 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
259 |
container_start_page |
831 |
op_container_end_page |
845 |
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1766049139255148544 |