Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology
Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation ac...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:86029019926846c38df4e69560403c8e 2023-09-05T13:21:25+02:00 Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology Matthew P Dannenberg Erika K Wise Mark Janko Taehee Hwang W Kolby Smith 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a https://doaj.org/article/86029019926846c38df4e69560403c8e EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/86029019926846c38df4e69560403c8e Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 3, p 034029 (2018) land surface phenology remote sensing El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnection interactions North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific-North American pattern Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a 2023-08-13T00:37:40Z Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982–2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N–60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Canada Pacific Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) Environmental Research Letters 13 3 034029 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
land surface phenology remote sensing El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnection interactions North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific-North American pattern Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
land surface phenology remote sensing El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnection interactions North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific-North American pattern Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Matthew P Dannenberg Erika K Wise Mark Janko Taehee Hwang W Kolby Smith Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
topic_facet |
land surface phenology remote sensing El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnection interactions North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific-North American pattern Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982–2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N–60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Matthew P Dannenberg Erika K Wise Mark Janko Taehee Hwang W Kolby Smith |
author_facet |
Matthew P Dannenberg Erika K Wise Mark Janko Taehee Hwang W Kolby Smith |
author_sort |
Matthew P Dannenberg |
title |
Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
title_short |
Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
title_full |
Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
title_sort |
atmospheric teleconnection influence on north american land surface phenology |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a https://doaj.org/article/86029019926846c38df4e69560403c8e |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
geographic |
Canada Pacific Soi |
geographic_facet |
Canada Pacific Soi |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 3, p 034029 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/86029019926846c38df4e69560403c8e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034029 |
_version_ |
1776202035507494912 |