Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment
Abstract Complex Earth systems under stress from global heating can resist change for only so long before tipping into transitional chaos. Convergent trajectories of change in Arctic, Amazon and other systems suggest a biosphere tipping point (BTP) in this mid-century. The BTP must be prevented and...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:85dac5385c454149b5d081cd3c2e4952 2023-05-15T14:55:36+02:00 Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment Julian Oliver Caldecott 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 https://doaj.org/article/85dac5385c454149b5d081cd3c2e4952 EN eng Springer https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 https://doaj.org/toc/2662-9984 doi:10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 2662-9984 https://doaj.org/article/85dac5385c454149b5d081cd3c2e4952 Discover Sustainability, Vol 3, Iss 1, Pp 1-20 (2022) Earth systems Global heating Tipping points Arctic sea ice Amazon deforestation Mitigation investment Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 2022-12-30T21:21:21Z Abstract Complex Earth systems under stress from global heating can resist change for only so long before tipping into transitional chaos. Convergent trajectories of change in Arctic, Amazon and other systems suggest a biosphere tipping point (BTP) in this mid-century. The BTP must be prevented and therefore offers a hard deadline against which to plan, implement, monitor, adjust and accelerate climate change mitigation efforts. These should be judged by their performance against this deadline, requiring mitigation investments to be compared and selected according to the unit cost of their dated mitigation value (tCO2edmv) outcomes. This unit of strategic effectiveness is created by exponentially discounting annual GHG savings in tCO2e against a dated BTP. Three proof of concept cases are described using a BTP in 2050 and a 10% discount rate, highlighting three key ways to prevent the BTP. The most reliably cost-effective for mitigation, and richest in environmental co-benefits, involves protecting high carbon-density natural ecosystems. Restored and regenerating natural ecosystems also yield abundant environmental co-benefits but slower mitigation gains. Improving choice awareness and building capacity to promote decarbonisation in all economic sectors is cost-effective and essential to meeting national net zero emission goals. Public mitigation portfolios should emphasise these three strategic elements, while private ones continue to focus on renewable energy and linked opportunities. Further research should prioritise: (1) consequences of an Arctic Ocean imminently free of summer sea ice; (2) testing the tCO2edmv metric with various assumptions in multiple contexts; and (3) integrating diverse co-benefit values into mitigation investment decisions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Discover Sustainability 3 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth systems Global heating Tipping points Arctic sea ice Amazon deforestation Mitigation investment Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
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Earth systems Global heating Tipping points Arctic sea ice Amazon deforestation Mitigation investment Environmental sciences GE1-350 Julian Oliver Caldecott Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment |
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Earth systems Global heating Tipping points Arctic sea ice Amazon deforestation Mitigation investment Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Abstract Complex Earth systems under stress from global heating can resist change for only so long before tipping into transitional chaos. Convergent trajectories of change in Arctic, Amazon and other systems suggest a biosphere tipping point (BTP) in this mid-century. The BTP must be prevented and therefore offers a hard deadline against which to plan, implement, monitor, adjust and accelerate climate change mitigation efforts. These should be judged by their performance against this deadline, requiring mitigation investments to be compared and selected according to the unit cost of their dated mitigation value (tCO2edmv) outcomes. This unit of strategic effectiveness is created by exponentially discounting annual GHG savings in tCO2e against a dated BTP. Three proof of concept cases are described using a BTP in 2050 and a 10% discount rate, highlighting three key ways to prevent the BTP. The most reliably cost-effective for mitigation, and richest in environmental co-benefits, involves protecting high carbon-density natural ecosystems. Restored and regenerating natural ecosystems also yield abundant environmental co-benefits but slower mitigation gains. Improving choice awareness and building capacity to promote decarbonisation in all economic sectors is cost-effective and essential to meeting national net zero emission goals. Public mitigation portfolios should emphasise these three strategic elements, while private ones continue to focus on renewable energy and linked opportunities. Further research should prioritise: (1) consequences of an Arctic Ocean imminently free of summer sea ice; (2) testing the tCO2edmv metric with various assumptions in multiple contexts; and (3) integrating diverse co-benefit values into mitigation investment decisions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Julian Oliver Caldecott |
author_facet |
Julian Oliver Caldecott |
author_sort |
Julian Oliver Caldecott |
title |
Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment |
title_short |
Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment |
title_full |
Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment |
title_fullStr |
Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment |
title_sort |
implications of earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 https://doaj.org/article/85dac5385c454149b5d081cd3c2e4952 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Discover Sustainability, Vol 3, Iss 1, Pp 1-20 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 https://doaj.org/toc/2662-9984 doi:10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 2662-9984 https://doaj.org/article/85dac5385c454149b5d081cd3c2e4952 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-022-00105-7 |
container_title |
Discover Sustainability |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766327621638946816 |