Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics
Cold extremes are anticipated to warm at a faster rate than both hot extremes and average temperatures for much of the Northern Hemisphere. Anomalously warm cold extremes can affect numerous sectors, including human health, tourism and various ecosystems that are sensitive to cold temperatures. Usin...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:85cafd9f5a064447ade94f3afd51e36f 2023-05-15T13:11:57+02:00 Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics M. H. Gross M. G. Donat L. V. Alexander S. C. Sherwood 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020 https://doaj.org/article/85cafd9f5a064447ade94f3afd51e36f EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/11/97/2020/esd-11-97-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-97-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/85cafd9f5a064447ade94f3afd51e36f Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 97-111 (2020) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020 2022-12-31T04:31:34Z Cold extremes are anticipated to warm at a faster rate than both hot extremes and average temperatures for much of the Northern Hemisphere. Anomalously warm cold extremes can affect numerous sectors, including human health, tourism and various ecosystems that are sensitive to cold temperatures. Using a selection of global climate models, this paper explores the accelerated warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to seasonal mean temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The potential driving physical mechanisms are investigated by assessing conditions on or prior to the day when the cold extreme occurs to understand how the different environmental fields are related. During winter, North America, Europe and much of Eurasia show amplified warming of cold extremes projected for the late 21st century, compared to the mid-20th century. This is shown to be largely driven by reductions in cold air temperature advection, suggested as a likely consequence of Arctic amplification. In spring and autumn, cold extremes are expected to warm faster than average temperatures for most of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes to high latitudes, particularly Alaska, northern Canada and northern Eurasia. In the shoulder seasons, projected decreases in snow cover and associated reductions in surface albedo are suggested as the largest contributor affecting the accelerated rates of warming in cold extremes. The key findings of this study improve our understanding of the environmental conditions that contribute to the accelerated warming of cold extremes relative to mean temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Human health Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada Earth System Dynamics 11 1 97 111 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 M. H. Gross M. G. Donat L. V. Alexander S. C. Sherwood Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Cold extremes are anticipated to warm at a faster rate than both hot extremes and average temperatures for much of the Northern Hemisphere. Anomalously warm cold extremes can affect numerous sectors, including human health, tourism and various ecosystems that are sensitive to cold temperatures. Using a selection of global climate models, this paper explores the accelerated warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to seasonal mean temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The potential driving physical mechanisms are investigated by assessing conditions on or prior to the day when the cold extreme occurs to understand how the different environmental fields are related. During winter, North America, Europe and much of Eurasia show amplified warming of cold extremes projected for the late 21st century, compared to the mid-20th century. This is shown to be largely driven by reductions in cold air temperature advection, suggested as a likely consequence of Arctic amplification. In spring and autumn, cold extremes are expected to warm faster than average temperatures for most of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes to high latitudes, particularly Alaska, northern Canada and northern Eurasia. In the shoulder seasons, projected decreases in snow cover and associated reductions in surface albedo are suggested as the largest contributor affecting the accelerated rates of warming in cold extremes. The key findings of this study improve our understanding of the environmental conditions that contribute to the accelerated warming of cold extremes relative to mean temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. H. Gross M. G. Donat L. V. Alexander S. C. Sherwood |
author_facet |
M. H. Gross M. G. Donat L. V. Alexander S. C. Sherwood |
author_sort |
M. H. Gross |
title |
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics |
title_short |
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics |
title_full |
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics |
title_fullStr |
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics |
title_sort |
amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the northern hemisphere extratropics |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020 https://doaj.org/article/85cafd9f5a064447ade94f3afd51e36f |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
albedo Arctic Human health Alaska |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Human health Alaska |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 97-111 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/11/97/2020/esd-11-97-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-97-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/85cafd9f5a064447ade94f3afd51e36f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
97 |
op_container_end_page |
111 |
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1766249708795199488 |