Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period
Reliable estimates of adult survival for many shorebird species are lacking. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) methods to provide an estimate of apparent, or local, survival (φ) of a population of whimbrels, Numenius phaeopus, breeding in the subarctic Churchill, Manitoba region. We used data collec...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:85c41d1f5b7a4df0b908472d40d3656f 2023-06-11T04:10:58+02:00 Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period Anne N. M. A. Ausems Johanna Perz Andrew Johnson Nathan Senner Margaret Skeel Erica Nol 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.03077 https://doaj.org/article/85c41d1f5b7a4df0b908472d40d3656f EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.03077 https://doaj.org/toc/0908-8857 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-048X 1600-048X 0908-8857 doi:10.1111/jav.03077 https://doaj.org/article/85c41d1f5b7a4df0b908472d40d3656f Journal of Avian Biology, Vol 2023, Iss 5-6, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) Cormack–Jolly–Seber model MARK return rates shorebirds inter-annual dispersal sex-dependent survival Biology (General) QH301-705.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.03077 2023-05-28T00:37:06Z Reliable estimates of adult survival for many shorebird species are lacking. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) methods to provide an estimate of apparent, or local, survival (φ) of a population of whimbrels, Numenius phaeopus, breeding in the subarctic Churchill, Manitoba region. We used data collected in two time‐periods: 1973–1976 and 2010–2014. We also quantified nest‐site fidelity in 2010–2014 to provide context to our apparent survival estimates because mark‐recapture analyses cannot distinguish between mortality and permanent emigration. The most parsimonious CJS model did not include effects of sex or time on apparent adult survival in either period (φ = 0.76 ± 0.13 SE; φ = 0.75 ± 0.04 SE, 1973–1976 and 2010–2014, respectively). Additionally, observations of marked whimbrels between 2010 and 2019 (n = 124) showed that 61 of the 105 marked individuals (58.1%) were resighted. These estimates of return rates are, as expected, much lower than estimates of apparent survival. The median year‐to‐year distance between nests (n = 139) in 2010 to 2014 was 198 m ± 88 SE and did not differ significantly (p = 0.84) between females (x̄ = 721.9 m ± 119.8 SE) and males (x̄ = 720.3 m ± 83.1 SE). If our apparent survival estimate is indicative of true survivorship, then adult mortality during the non‐breeding season has remained constant over the last five decades, implying that the recent decline in whimbrel populations may stem largely from reduced fecundity, including egg or juvenile survival, rather than primarily from reduced adult survival. Article in Journal/Newspaper Churchill Numenius phaeopus Subarctic Whimbrel Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Canada Journal of Avian Biology 2023 5-6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Cormack–Jolly–Seber model MARK return rates shorebirds inter-annual dispersal sex-dependent survival Biology (General) QH301-705.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
Cormack–Jolly–Seber model MARK return rates shorebirds inter-annual dispersal sex-dependent survival Biology (General) QH301-705.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Anne N. M. A. Ausems Johanna Perz Andrew Johnson Nathan Senner Margaret Skeel Erica Nol Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period |
topic_facet |
Cormack–Jolly–Seber model MARK return rates shorebirds inter-annual dispersal sex-dependent survival Biology (General) QH301-705.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Reliable estimates of adult survival for many shorebird species are lacking. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) methods to provide an estimate of apparent, or local, survival (φ) of a population of whimbrels, Numenius phaeopus, breeding in the subarctic Churchill, Manitoba region. We used data collected in two time‐periods: 1973–1976 and 2010–2014. We also quantified nest‐site fidelity in 2010–2014 to provide context to our apparent survival estimates because mark‐recapture analyses cannot distinguish between mortality and permanent emigration. The most parsimonious CJS model did not include effects of sex or time on apparent adult survival in either period (φ = 0.76 ± 0.13 SE; φ = 0.75 ± 0.04 SE, 1973–1976 and 2010–2014, respectively). Additionally, observations of marked whimbrels between 2010 and 2019 (n = 124) showed that 61 of the 105 marked individuals (58.1%) were resighted. These estimates of return rates are, as expected, much lower than estimates of apparent survival. The median year‐to‐year distance between nests (n = 139) in 2010 to 2014 was 198 m ± 88 SE and did not differ significantly (p = 0.84) between females (x̄ = 721.9 m ± 119.8 SE) and males (x̄ = 720.3 m ± 83.1 SE). If our apparent survival estimate is indicative of true survivorship, then adult mortality during the non‐breeding season has remained constant over the last five decades, implying that the recent decline in whimbrel populations may stem largely from reduced fecundity, including egg or juvenile survival, rather than primarily from reduced adult survival. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anne N. M. A. Ausems Johanna Perz Andrew Johnson Nathan Senner Margaret Skeel Erica Nol |
author_facet |
Anne N. M. A. Ausems Johanna Perz Andrew Johnson Nathan Senner Margaret Skeel Erica Nol |
author_sort |
Anne N. M. A. Ausems |
title |
Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period |
title_short |
Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period |
title_full |
Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period |
title_fullStr |
Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel Numenius phaeopus near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40 year period |
title_sort |
consistent apparent adult survival and nest‐site fidelity of whimbrel numenius phaeopus near churchill, manitoba, canada over a 40 year period |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.03077 https://doaj.org/article/85c41d1f5b7a4df0b908472d40d3656f |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Churchill Numenius phaeopus Subarctic Whimbrel |
genre_facet |
Churchill Numenius phaeopus Subarctic Whimbrel |
op_source |
Journal of Avian Biology, Vol 2023, Iss 5-6, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.03077 https://doaj.org/toc/0908-8857 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-048X 1600-048X 0908-8857 doi:10.1111/jav.03077 https://doaj.org/article/85c41d1f5b7a4df0b908472d40d3656f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.03077 |
container_title |
Journal of Avian Biology |
container_volume |
2023 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
_version_ |
1768385747565412352 |