European Winter Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss Strongly Shaped by Change in the North Atlantic Jet

Abstract Previous studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea‐ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic‐European region to future Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming is analyzed, using model...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Kunhui Ye, Tim Woollings, James A. Screen
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
Arctic sea‐ice loss
North Atlantic jet
model uncertainties
temperature and precipitation
storm track activity
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Global warming
North Atlantic
Sea ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102005
https://doaj.org/article/84f6d581c6c548b3b9c80200b823571a
Description
Summary:Abstract Previous studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea‐ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic‐European region to future Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming is analyzed, using model output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree that the North Atlantic jet shifts slightly southward in response to sea‐ice loss, but they disagree on the sign of the jet speed response. The jet response induces a dipole anomaly of precipitation and storm track activity over the North Atlantic‐European region. The changes in jet latitude and speed induce distinct regional surface climate responses, and together they strongly shape the North Atlantic‐European response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss. Constraining the North Atlantic jet response is important for reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic‐European precipitation response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss.

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