Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades
In this study, we utilized NDVI data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) alongside climatic variables obtained from a reanalyzed dataset to analyze Arctic greening during the summer months (June–September) of the last two decades. This investigation entailed a detailed ana...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:84cceafdbe9c4cca9868eba88f3c3d0c 2024-09-15T17:52:40+00:00 Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades Minji Seo Hyun-Cheol Kim 2024-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16071160 https://doaj.org/article/84cceafdbe9c4cca9868eba88f3c3d0c EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/7/1160 https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292 doi:10.3390/rs16071160 2072-4292 https://doaj.org/article/84cceafdbe9c4cca9868eba88f3c3d0c Remote Sensing, Vol 16, Iss 7, p 1160 (2024) tundra vegetation temperature energy budget MODIS Bayesian model averaging time-series decomposition algorithm (BEAST) Science Q article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16071160 2024-08-05T17:49:37Z In this study, we utilized NDVI data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) alongside climatic variables obtained from a reanalyzed dataset to analyze Arctic greening during the summer months (June–September) of the last two decades. This investigation entailed a detailed analysis of these changes across various temporal scales. The data indicated a continuous trend of Arctic greening, evidenced by a 1.8% per decade increment in the NDVI. Notably, significant change points were identified in June 2012 and September 2013. A comparative assessment of NDVI pre- and post-these inflection points revealed an elongation of the Arctic greening trend. Furthermore, an anomalous increase in NDVI of 2% per decade was observed, suggesting an acceleration in greening. A comprehensive analysis was conducted to decipher the correlation between NDVI, temperature, and energy budget parameters to elucidate the underlying causes of these change points. Although the correlation between these variables was relatively low throughout the summer months, a distinct pattern emerged when these periods were dissected and examined in the context of the identified change points. Preceding the change point, a strong correlation (approximately 0.6) was observed between all variables; however, this correlation significantly diminished after the change point, dropping to less than half. This shift implies an introduction of additional external factors influencing the Arctic greening trend after the change point. Our findings provide foundational data for estimating the tipping point in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. This is achieved by integrating the observed NDVI change points with their relationship with climatic variables, which are essential in comprehensively understanding the dynamics of Arctic climate change, particularly with alterations in tundra vegetation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greening Climate change Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Remote Sensing 16 7 1160 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tundra vegetation temperature energy budget MODIS Bayesian model averaging time-series decomposition algorithm (BEAST) Science Q |
spellingShingle |
tundra vegetation temperature energy budget MODIS Bayesian model averaging time-series decomposition algorithm (BEAST) Science Q Minji Seo Hyun-Cheol Kim Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades |
topic_facet |
tundra vegetation temperature energy budget MODIS Bayesian model averaging time-series decomposition algorithm (BEAST) Science Q |
description |
In this study, we utilized NDVI data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) alongside climatic variables obtained from a reanalyzed dataset to analyze Arctic greening during the summer months (June–September) of the last two decades. This investigation entailed a detailed analysis of these changes across various temporal scales. The data indicated a continuous trend of Arctic greening, evidenced by a 1.8% per decade increment in the NDVI. Notably, significant change points were identified in June 2012 and September 2013. A comparative assessment of NDVI pre- and post-these inflection points revealed an elongation of the Arctic greening trend. Furthermore, an anomalous increase in NDVI of 2% per decade was observed, suggesting an acceleration in greening. A comprehensive analysis was conducted to decipher the correlation between NDVI, temperature, and energy budget parameters to elucidate the underlying causes of these change points. Although the correlation between these variables was relatively low throughout the summer months, a distinct pattern emerged when these periods were dissected and examined in the context of the identified change points. Preceding the change point, a strong correlation (approximately 0.6) was observed between all variables; however, this correlation significantly diminished after the change point, dropping to less than half. This shift implies an introduction of additional external factors influencing the Arctic greening trend after the change point. Our findings provide foundational data for estimating the tipping point in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. This is achieved by integrating the observed NDVI change points with their relationship with climatic variables, which are essential in comprehensively understanding the dynamics of Arctic climate change, particularly with alterations in tundra vegetation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Minji Seo Hyun-Cheol Kim |
author_facet |
Minji Seo Hyun-Cheol Kim |
author_sort |
Minji Seo |
title |
Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades |
title_short |
Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades |
title_full |
Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades |
title_sort |
arctic greening trends: change points in satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indexes and their correlation with climate variables over the last two decades |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16071160 https://doaj.org/article/84cceafdbe9c4cca9868eba88f3c3d0c |
genre |
Arctic Greening Climate change Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greening Climate change Tundra |
op_source |
Remote Sensing, Vol 16, Iss 7, p 1160 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/7/1160 https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292 doi:10.3390/rs16071160 2072-4292 https://doaj.org/article/84cceafdbe9c4cca9868eba88f3c3d0c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16071160 |
container_title |
Remote Sensing |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1160 |
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1810294704995041280 |