Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor
The warming climate has posed a serious threat on ground surface stability. In permafrost regions, ground surface instability may induce engineering and geological disasters, especially for the engineering corridor. It is difficult to evaluate ground surface stability over permafrost because the sta...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:83ceaad39de34e208d58045f066f80ef 2024-01-07T09:37:54+01:00 Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor Tao Zhao Chong Wang Jiachen Wang 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/su152316412 https://doaj.org/article/83ceaad39de34e208d58045f066f80ef EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/23/16412 https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su152316412 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/83ceaad39de34e208d58045f066f80ef Sustainability, Vol 15, Iss 23, p 16412 (2023) permafrost Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor climate warming ground surface stability influential factors Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/su152316412 2023-12-10T01:36:23Z The warming climate has posed a serious threat on ground surface stability. In permafrost regions, ground surface instability may induce engineering and geological disasters, especially for the engineering corridor. It is difficult to evaluate ground surface stability over permafrost because the stability is influenced by various factors in permafrost regions. Many single index models cannot comprehensively evaluate the ground surface stability for permafrost. We, therefore, proposed an evaluation model considering different influential factors based on the trapezoidal fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. And the ground surface stability was calculated and analyzed along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor under three climate warming conditions (the slow climate warming, the medium climate warming and the rapid climate warming). The results show that the ground surface stability influential factors, including the mean annual ground temperature, the active layer thickness, and the volume ice content, will be greatly changed with the warming climate. By 2100, the percentage of high-temperature permafrost (−0.5 °C < T ≤ 0 °C) will increase about 29.45% with rapid climate warming. The active layer thickness will have an average thickening rate of about 0.030 m/year. Most of the high ice content permafrost will change to low ice content permafrost. The ground surface stability, therefore, will be greatly changed with the warming climate along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor. Compared to the present, the stable area will decrease about 5.28% by 2050 under the slow climate warming. And that is approximately 7.91% and 21.78% under the medium and rapid climate warming, respectively. While in year 2100, the decrement is obviously increased. The stable area will decrease about 11.22% under the slow climate warming and about 17.3% under the medium climate warming. The proportion of stable area, however, has an increasing trend under the rapid climate warming. This phenomenon is mainly caused by the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Ice permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Sustainability 15 23 16412 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor climate warming ground surface stability influential factors Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor climate warming ground surface stability influential factors Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Tao Zhao Chong Wang Jiachen Wang Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor |
topic_facet |
permafrost Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor climate warming ground surface stability influential factors Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The warming climate has posed a serious threat on ground surface stability. In permafrost regions, ground surface instability may induce engineering and geological disasters, especially for the engineering corridor. It is difficult to evaluate ground surface stability over permafrost because the stability is influenced by various factors in permafrost regions. Many single index models cannot comprehensively evaluate the ground surface stability for permafrost. We, therefore, proposed an evaluation model considering different influential factors based on the trapezoidal fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. And the ground surface stability was calculated and analyzed along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor under three climate warming conditions (the slow climate warming, the medium climate warming and the rapid climate warming). The results show that the ground surface stability influential factors, including the mean annual ground temperature, the active layer thickness, and the volume ice content, will be greatly changed with the warming climate. By 2100, the percentage of high-temperature permafrost (−0.5 °C < T ≤ 0 °C) will increase about 29.45% with rapid climate warming. The active layer thickness will have an average thickening rate of about 0.030 m/year. Most of the high ice content permafrost will change to low ice content permafrost. The ground surface stability, therefore, will be greatly changed with the warming climate along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor. Compared to the present, the stable area will decrease about 5.28% by 2050 under the slow climate warming. And that is approximately 7.91% and 21.78% under the medium and rapid climate warming, respectively. While in year 2100, the decrement is obviously increased. The stable area will decrease about 11.22% under the slow climate warming and about 17.3% under the medium climate warming. The proportion of stable area, however, has an increasing trend under the rapid climate warming. This phenomenon is mainly caused by the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tao Zhao Chong Wang Jiachen Wang |
author_facet |
Tao Zhao Chong Wang Jiachen Wang |
author_sort |
Tao Zhao |
title |
Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor |
title_short |
Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor |
title_full |
Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor |
title_fullStr |
Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor |
title_sort |
influence of climate warming on the ground surface stability over permafrost along the qinghai–tibet engineering corridor |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su152316412 https://doaj.org/article/83ceaad39de34e208d58045f066f80ef |
genre |
Active layer thickness Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Ice permafrost |
op_source |
Sustainability, Vol 15, Iss 23, p 16412 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/23/16412 https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su152316412 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/83ceaad39de34e208d58045f066f80ef |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su152316412 |
container_title |
Sustainability |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
16412 |
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1787421914612891648 |