Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north
Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifi...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8390f394cdf04d80896ee5f8f417338a 2023-05-15T15:37:59+02:00 Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north Roland Jansson Christer Nilsson E. Carina H. Keskitalo Tatiana Vlasova Marja-Liisa Sutinen Jon Moen F. Stuart Chapin III Kari Anne Bråthen Mar Cabeza Terry V. Callaghan Bob van Oort Halvor Dannevig Ingrid A. Bay-larsen Rolf A. Ims Paul Eric Aspholm 2015-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 https://doaj.org/article/8390f394cdf04d80896ee5f8f417338a EN eng Resilience Alliance https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss3/art32 https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-07607-200332 https://doaj.org/article/8390f394cdf04d80896ee5f8f417338a Ecology and Society, Vol 20, Iss 3, p 32 (2015) barents region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 2022-12-30T19:25:01Z Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues. Article in Journal/Newspaper barents region reindeer husbandry Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ecology and Society 20 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
barents region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
barents region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 Roland Jansson Christer Nilsson E. Carina H. Keskitalo Tatiana Vlasova Marja-Liisa Sutinen Jon Moen F. Stuart Chapin III Kari Anne Bråthen Mar Cabeza Terry V. Callaghan Bob van Oort Halvor Dannevig Ingrid A. Bay-larsen Rolf A. Ims Paul Eric Aspholm Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
topic_facet |
barents region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Roland Jansson Christer Nilsson E. Carina H. Keskitalo Tatiana Vlasova Marja-Liisa Sutinen Jon Moen F. Stuart Chapin III Kari Anne Bråthen Mar Cabeza Terry V. Callaghan Bob van Oort Halvor Dannevig Ingrid A. Bay-larsen Rolf A. Ims Paul Eric Aspholm |
author_facet |
Roland Jansson Christer Nilsson E. Carina H. Keskitalo Tatiana Vlasova Marja-Liisa Sutinen Jon Moen F. Stuart Chapin III Kari Anne Bråthen Mar Cabeza Terry V. Callaghan Bob van Oort Halvor Dannevig Ingrid A. Bay-larsen Rolf A. Ims Paul Eric Aspholm |
author_sort |
Roland Jansson |
title |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_short |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_full |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_sort |
future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the european north |
publisher |
Resilience Alliance |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 https://doaj.org/article/8390f394cdf04d80896ee5f8f417338a |
genre |
barents region reindeer husbandry |
genre_facet |
barents region reindeer husbandry |
op_source |
Ecology and Society, Vol 20, Iss 3, p 32 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss3/art32 https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-07607-200332 https://doaj.org/article/8390f394cdf04d80896ee5f8f417338a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 |
container_title |
Ecology and Society |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
3 |
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1766368649185067008 |