Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest
Climate change is a long-term threat to polar bears. However, sea-ice loss is hypothesized to provide transient benefits in high latitudes, where thick multiyear ice historically limited biological productivity and seal abundance. We used joint live-recapture and dead-recovery mark-recapture models...
Published in: | Endangered Species Research |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Inter-Research
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01239 https://doaj.org/article/833f1d71760b4a22b2f172472fef6988 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:833f1d71760b4a22b2f172472fef6988 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:833f1d71760b4a22b2f172472fef6988 2023-08-20T04:04:28+02:00 Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest KL Laidre TW Arnold EV Regehr SN Atkinson EW Born Ø Wiig NJ Lunn M Dyck HL Stern S Stapleton B Cohen D Paetkau 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01239 https://doaj.org/article/833f1d71760b4a22b2f172472fef6988 EN eng Inter-Research https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/esr/v51/p73-87/ https://doaj.org/toc/1863-5407 https://doaj.org/toc/1613-4796 1863-5407 1613-4796 doi:10.3354/esr01239 https://doaj.org/article/833f1d71760b4a22b2f172472fef6988 Endangered Species Research, Vol 51, Pp 73-87 (2023) Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01239 2023-07-30T00:39:03Z Climate change is a long-term threat to polar bears. However, sea-ice loss is hypothesized to provide transient benefits in high latitudes, where thick multiyear ice historically limited biological productivity and seal abundance. We used joint live-recapture and dead-recovery mark-recapture models to analyze data for one of the most northerly polar bear subpopulations, Kane Basin. The data consisted of 277 initial live captures and genetic identifications (1992-1997 = 150, 2012-2014 = 127), 89 recaptures or re-identifications (1992-1997 = 53, 2012-2014 = 36), and 24 harvest returns of research-marked bears during 1992-2014. We estimated mean annual abundance of 357 bears (95% CI: 221-493) for 2013-2014. This suggests a likely increase relative to our estimate of 224 (95% CI: 145-303) bears in the mid-1990s and relative to a previously published estimate of 164 (95% CI: 94-234) bears in the mid-1990s that used some of the same data. This is also supported by an apparent increase in the density of bears in eastern Kane Basin during 2012-2014. Estimates of total survival for females ≥3 yr old (mean ± SE: 0.95 ± 0.04) and their dependent offspring were similar to previous estimates from the 1990s, and estimates of unharvested survival for females ≥3 yr (0.96 ± 0.04) appear sufficient for positive population growth. Estimates of total survival were lower for males ≥3 yr (0.87 ± 0.06). We documented a reduction in mortality associated with subsistence harvest, likely attributable to implementation of a harvest quota by Greenland in 2006. Our findings, together with evidence for increased range sizes, improved body condition for all sex and age classes, and stable reproductive metrics, show that this small high-Arctic polar bear subpopulation remains productive and healthy. These benefits are likely temporary given predictions for continued climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Greenland Kane Basin Sea ice Ursus maritimus Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Greenland Kane ENVELOPE(-63.038,-63.038,-73.952,-73.952) Endangered Species Research 51 73 87 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 |
spellingShingle |
Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 KL Laidre TW Arnold EV Regehr SN Atkinson EW Born Ø Wiig NJ Lunn M Dyck HL Stern S Stapleton B Cohen D Paetkau Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest |
topic_facet |
Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 |
description |
Climate change is a long-term threat to polar bears. However, sea-ice loss is hypothesized to provide transient benefits in high latitudes, where thick multiyear ice historically limited biological productivity and seal abundance. We used joint live-recapture and dead-recovery mark-recapture models to analyze data for one of the most northerly polar bear subpopulations, Kane Basin. The data consisted of 277 initial live captures and genetic identifications (1992-1997 = 150, 2012-2014 = 127), 89 recaptures or re-identifications (1992-1997 = 53, 2012-2014 = 36), and 24 harvest returns of research-marked bears during 1992-2014. We estimated mean annual abundance of 357 bears (95% CI: 221-493) for 2013-2014. This suggests a likely increase relative to our estimate of 224 (95% CI: 145-303) bears in the mid-1990s and relative to a previously published estimate of 164 (95% CI: 94-234) bears in the mid-1990s that used some of the same data. This is also supported by an apparent increase in the density of bears in eastern Kane Basin during 2012-2014. Estimates of total survival for females ≥3 yr old (mean ± SE: 0.95 ± 0.04) and their dependent offspring were similar to previous estimates from the 1990s, and estimates of unharvested survival for females ≥3 yr (0.96 ± 0.04) appear sufficient for positive population growth. Estimates of total survival were lower for males ≥3 yr (0.87 ± 0.06). We documented a reduction in mortality associated with subsistence harvest, likely attributable to implementation of a harvest quota by Greenland in 2006. Our findings, together with evidence for increased range sizes, improved body condition for all sex and age classes, and stable reproductive metrics, show that this small high-Arctic polar bear subpopulation remains productive and healthy. These benefits are likely temporary given predictions for continued climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
KL Laidre TW Arnold EV Regehr SN Atkinson EW Born Ø Wiig NJ Lunn M Dyck HL Stern S Stapleton B Cohen D Paetkau |
author_facet |
KL Laidre TW Arnold EV Regehr SN Atkinson EW Born Ø Wiig NJ Lunn M Dyck HL Stern S Stapleton B Cohen D Paetkau |
author_sort |
KL Laidre |
title |
Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest |
title_short |
Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest |
title_full |
Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest |
title_fullStr |
Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest |
title_full_unstemmed |
Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest |
title_sort |
demographic response of a high-arctic polar bear (ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest |
publisher |
Inter-Research |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01239 https://doaj.org/article/833f1d71760b4a22b2f172472fef6988 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.038,-63.038,-73.952,-73.952) |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland Kane |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland Kane |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Greenland Kane Basin Sea ice Ursus maritimus |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Greenland Kane Basin Sea ice Ursus maritimus |
op_source |
Endangered Species Research, Vol 51, Pp 73-87 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/esr/v51/p73-87/ https://doaj.org/toc/1863-5407 https://doaj.org/toc/1613-4796 1863-5407 1613-4796 doi:10.3354/esr01239 https://doaj.org/article/833f1d71760b4a22b2f172472fef6988 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01239 |
container_title |
Endangered Species Research |
container_volume |
51 |
container_start_page |
73 |
op_container_end_page |
87 |
_version_ |
1774714844203712512 |