Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand
Phreatic eruptions are small, sudden events, commonly with few precursory signals. They are driven by interactions between magmatic and hydrothermal processes at shallow levels beneath the surface. Here we show that a sequence of banded tremor events, which occurred several weeks before the 9 Decemb...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:82ca9697c1064c3cb0f9228f1ae12d24 2024-09-09T20:13:20+00:00 Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand John Stix Craig Miller Yajing Liu 2024-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.07.01.153164 https://doaj.org/article/82ca9697c1064c3cb0f9228f1ae12d24 EN eng Volcanica https://www.jvolcanica.org/ojs/index.php/volcanica/article/view/217 https://doaj.org/toc/2610-3540 2610-3540 doi:10.30909/vol.07.01.153164 https://doaj.org/article/82ca9697c1064c3cb0f9228f1ae12d24 Volcanica, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 153-164 (2024) phreatic eruptions whakaari volcano banded tremor eruption forecasting Geology QE1-996.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.07.01.153164 2024-08-05T17:49:50Z Phreatic eruptions are small, sudden events, commonly with few precursory signals. They are driven by interactions between magmatic and hydrothermal processes at shallow levels beneath the surface. Here we show that a sequence of banded tremor events, which occurred several weeks before the 9 December 2019 eruption of Whakaari (White Island), New Zealand, can be used to hindcast this eruption. The banded tremor sequence reveals a progressively decreasing time interval between tremor bands. Extrapolating the tremor bands to a time interval of zero provides an accurate estimate, at least one week prior to the eruption, to within 10.2 hours of when the eruption would occur, with a 2.8-day range between 95 % confidence intervals. A similar set of tremor signals appeared before the 27 April 2016 eruption, and these signals provide a very accurate hindcast of this eruption to within 2.61 hours, with a 2.2-day range between 95 % confidence intervals. Our analysis indicates that this potential forecasting approach may prove useful for successfully and accurately forecasting future eruptions at Whakaari. The approach also may be applicable to other volcanoes similar to Whakaari which experience sudden phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions. Article in Journal/Newspaper White Island Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles New Zealand White Island ENVELOPE(48.583,48.583,-66.733,-66.733) Volcanica 7 1 153 164 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
phreatic eruptions whakaari volcano banded tremor eruption forecasting Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
phreatic eruptions whakaari volcano banded tremor eruption forecasting Geology QE1-996.5 John Stix Craig Miller Yajing Liu Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand |
topic_facet |
phreatic eruptions whakaari volcano banded tremor eruption forecasting Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Phreatic eruptions are small, sudden events, commonly with few precursory signals. They are driven by interactions between magmatic and hydrothermal processes at shallow levels beneath the surface. Here we show that a sequence of banded tremor events, which occurred several weeks before the 9 December 2019 eruption of Whakaari (White Island), New Zealand, can be used to hindcast this eruption. The banded tremor sequence reveals a progressively decreasing time interval between tremor bands. Extrapolating the tremor bands to a time interval of zero provides an accurate estimate, at least one week prior to the eruption, to within 10.2 hours of when the eruption would occur, with a 2.8-day range between 95 % confidence intervals. A similar set of tremor signals appeared before the 27 April 2016 eruption, and these signals provide a very accurate hindcast of this eruption to within 2.61 hours, with a 2.2-day range between 95 % confidence intervals. Our analysis indicates that this potential forecasting approach may prove useful for successfully and accurately forecasting future eruptions at Whakaari. The approach also may be applicable to other volcanoes similar to Whakaari which experience sudden phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
John Stix Craig Miller Yajing Liu |
author_facet |
John Stix Craig Miller Yajing Liu |
author_sort |
John Stix |
title |
Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand |
title_short |
Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand |
title_full |
Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand |
title_fullStr |
Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand |
title_full_unstemmed |
Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand |
title_sort |
accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at whakaari, new zealand |
publisher |
Volcanica |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.07.01.153164 https://doaj.org/article/82ca9697c1064c3cb0f9228f1ae12d24 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(48.583,48.583,-66.733,-66.733) |
geographic |
New Zealand White Island |
geographic_facet |
New Zealand White Island |
genre |
White Island |
genre_facet |
White Island |
op_source |
Volcanica, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 153-164 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://www.jvolcanica.org/ojs/index.php/volcanica/article/view/217 https://doaj.org/toc/2610-3540 2610-3540 doi:10.30909/vol.07.01.153164 https://doaj.org/article/82ca9697c1064c3cb0f9228f1ae12d24 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.07.01.153164 |
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Volcanica |
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7 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
153 |
op_container_end_page |
164 |
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1809815028145061888 |