Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time o...
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Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4 2023-05-15T15:07:11+02:00 Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 Arūnas Bukantis Gytis Valaika 2021-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4 EN eng Vilnius Gediminas Technical University https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580 https://doaj.org/toc/1648-6897 https://doaj.org/toc/1822-4199 1648-6897 1822-4199 doi:10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4 Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management, Vol 29, Iss 3, Pp 337-345 (2021) air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Environmental engineering TA170-171 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 2022-12-31T10:09:19Z The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Hess ENVELOPE(-65.133,-65.133,-67.200,-67.200) Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management 29 3 337 345 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
spellingShingle |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Environmental engineering TA170-171 Arūnas Bukantis Gytis Valaika Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
topic_facet |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
description |
The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arūnas Bukantis Gytis Valaika |
author_facet |
Arūnas Bukantis Gytis Valaika |
author_sort |
Arūnas Bukantis |
title |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_short |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_full |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_fullStr |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_sort |
accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of lithuania using noaa’s climate forecast system version 2 |
publisher |
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-65.133,-65.133,-67.200,-67.200) |
geographic |
Arctic Hess |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Hess |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management, Vol 29, Iss 3, Pp 337-345 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580 https://doaj.org/toc/1648-6897 https://doaj.org/toc/1822-4199 1648-6897 1822-4199 doi:10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 |
container_title |
Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
337 |
op_container_end_page |
345 |
_version_ |
1766338740746190848 |