Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study.
Background Worldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce le...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8227c66c15ab47778cd6dae7b8d0aa66 2023-05-15T15:11:37+02:00 Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study. Anneke T Taal David J Blok Wim H van Brakel Sake J de Vlas Jan Hendrik Richardus 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 https://doaj.org/article/8227c66c15ab47778cd6dae7b8d0aa66 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 https://doaj.org/article/8227c66c15ab47778cd6dae7b8d0aa66 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 2, p e0009146 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 2022-12-31T11:50:15Z Background Worldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce leprosy new case detection (NCD) at national and global level by 50% and 90%. Methodology/principal findings The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was fitted to seven leprosy settings defined by NCD and MB proportion. Using data of all 110 countries with known leprosy patients in 2016, we assigned each country to one of these settings. We predicted the impact of administering PEP to about 25 contacts of leprosy patients on the annual NCD for 25 years and estimated the number of contacts requiring PEP per country for each year. The NCD trends show an increase in NCD in the first year (i.e. backlog cases) followed by a significant decrease thereafter. A reduction of 50% and 90% of new cases would be achieved in most countries in 5 and 22 years if 20.6 and 40.2 million people are treated with PEP over that period, respectively. For India, Brazil, and Indonesia together, a total of 32.9 million people requiring PEP to achieve a 90% reduction in 22 years. Conclusion/significance The leprosy problem is far greater than the 210,000 new cases reported annually. Our model estimates of the number of people requiring PEP to achieve significant reduction of new leprosy cases can be used by policymakers and program managers to develop long-term strategies to end leprosy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 2 e0009146 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Anneke T Taal David J Blok Wim H van Brakel Sake J de Vlas Jan Hendrik Richardus Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Worldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce leprosy new case detection (NCD) at national and global level by 50% and 90%. Methodology/principal findings The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was fitted to seven leprosy settings defined by NCD and MB proportion. Using data of all 110 countries with known leprosy patients in 2016, we assigned each country to one of these settings. We predicted the impact of administering PEP to about 25 contacts of leprosy patients on the annual NCD for 25 years and estimated the number of contacts requiring PEP per country for each year. The NCD trends show an increase in NCD in the first year (i.e. backlog cases) followed by a significant decrease thereafter. A reduction of 50% and 90% of new cases would be achieved in most countries in 5 and 22 years if 20.6 and 40.2 million people are treated with PEP over that period, respectively. For India, Brazil, and Indonesia together, a total of 32.9 million people requiring PEP to achieve a 90% reduction in 22 years. Conclusion/significance The leprosy problem is far greater than the 210,000 new cases reported annually. Our model estimates of the number of people requiring PEP to achieve significant reduction of new leprosy cases can be used by policymakers and program managers to develop long-term strategies to end leprosy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anneke T Taal David J Blok Wim H van Brakel Sake J de Vlas Jan Hendrik Richardus |
author_facet |
Anneke T Taal David J Blok Wim H van Brakel Sake J de Vlas Jan Hendrik Richardus |
author_sort |
Anneke T Taal |
title |
Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study. |
title_short |
Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study. |
title_full |
Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study. |
title_fullStr |
Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study. |
title_sort |
number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: a modeling study. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 https://doaj.org/article/8227c66c15ab47778cd6dae7b8d0aa66 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 2, p e0009146 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 https://doaj.org/article/8227c66c15ab47778cd6dae7b8d0aa66 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
15 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
e0009146 |
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