Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Robin T Clark, Philip E Bett, Hazel E Thornton, Adam A Scaife
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: IOP Publishing 2017
• Subjects: seasonal prediction; nao; energy; predictability; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering; TD1-1066; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Science; Q; Physics; QC1-999; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa57ab; https://doaj.org/article/821b3fdb954946f8b984545850a398a8

We assess the utility of seasonal forecasts for the energy industry by showing how recently-established predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter allows predictability of near-surface wind speed and air temperature and therefore energy supply and demand respectively. Our seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) successfully reproduces the influence of the NAO on European climate, leading to skilful forecasts of wind speed and wind power and hence wind driven energy supply. Temperature is skilfully forecast using the observed temperature-NAO relationship and the NAO forecast. Using the correlation between forecast NAO and observed GB electricity demand, we demonstrate that skilful predictions of winter demand are also achievable on seasonal timescales well in advance of the season. Finally, good reliability of probabilistic forecasts of above/below-average wind speed and temperature is also demonstrated.