Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate
Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution st...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101441 https://doaj.org/article/81ecd3d4c5db4a5390320162594e1706 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:81ecd3d4c5db4a5390320162594e1706 2023-05-15T17:48:04+02:00 Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate Ayushi Gaur Abhishek Gaur Slobodan P. Simonovic 2018-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101441 https://doaj.org/article/81ecd3d4c5db4a5390320162594e1706 EN eng MDPI AG http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1441 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w10101441 https://doaj.org/article/81ecd3d4c5db4a5390320162594e1706 Water, Vol 10, Iss 10, p 1441 (2018) climate change Canada flooding frequency catchment based macroscale floodplain model uncertainty Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101441 2022-12-31T07:04:53Z Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Nunavut Yukon Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nunavut Yukon Canada Water 10 10 1441 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change Canada flooding frequency catchment based macroscale floodplain model uncertainty Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
spellingShingle |
climate change Canada flooding frequency catchment based macroscale floodplain model uncertainty Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Ayushi Gaur Abhishek Gaur Slobodan P. Simonovic Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate |
topic_facet |
climate change Canada flooding frequency catchment based macroscale floodplain model uncertainty Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
description |
Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ayushi Gaur Abhishek Gaur Slobodan P. Simonovic |
author_facet |
Ayushi Gaur Abhishek Gaur Slobodan P. Simonovic |
author_sort |
Ayushi Gaur |
title |
Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate |
title_short |
Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate |
title_full |
Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate |
title_fullStr |
Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate |
title_sort |
future changes in flood hazards across canada under a changing climate |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101441 https://doaj.org/article/81ecd3d4c5db4a5390320162594e1706 |
geographic |
Nunavut Yukon Canada |
geographic_facet |
Nunavut Yukon Canada |
genre |
Nunavut Yukon |
genre_facet |
Nunavut Yukon |
op_source |
Water, Vol 10, Iss 10, p 1441 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1441 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w10101441 https://doaj.org/article/81ecd3d4c5db4a5390320162594e1706 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101441 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1441 |
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1766153244718923776 |