Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importan...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 https://doaj.org/article/816fa58f11454eb685e0f5581026cd13 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:816fa58f11454eb685e0f5581026cd13 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:816fa58f11454eb685e0f5581026cd13 2023-05-15T16:20:58+02:00 Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting D. A. Slater F. Straneo D. Felikson C. M. Little H. Goelzer X. Fettweis J. Holte 2019-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 https://doaj.org/article/816fa58f11454eb685e0f5581026cd13 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/2489/2019/tc-13-2489-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/816fa58f11454eb685e0f5581026cd13 The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 2489-2509 (2019) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 2022-12-30T22:02:12Z The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic The Cryosphere Tidewater Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland The Cryosphere 13 9 2489 2509 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 D. A. Slater F. Straneo D. Felikson C. M. Little H. Goelzer X. Fettweis J. Holte Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
D. A. Slater F. Straneo D. Felikson C. M. Little H. Goelzer X. Fettweis J. Holte |
author_facet |
D. A. Slater F. Straneo D. Felikson C. M. Little H. Goelzer X. Fettweis J. Holte |
author_sort |
D. A. Slater |
title |
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting |
title_short |
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting |
title_full |
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting |
title_fullStr |
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting |
title_sort |
estimating greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 https://doaj.org/article/816fa58f11454eb685e0f5581026cd13 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic The Cryosphere Tidewater |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic The Cryosphere Tidewater |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 2489-2509 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/2489/2019/tc-13-2489-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/816fa58f11454eb685e0f5581026cd13 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
2489 |
op_container_end_page |
2509 |
_version_ |
1766008976287203328 |