Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics
The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is deriv...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:80a8550c03cb43b6a223e1d4d9af4b74 2023-05-15T13:35:00+02:00 Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics M. L. Santee K. Frieler D. J. Hofmann M. Rex P. A. Newman A. R. Douglass R. S. Stolarski S. R. Kawa 2009-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/80a8550c03cb43b6a223e1d4d9af4b74 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/8651/2009/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/80a8550c03cb43b6a223e1d4d9af4b74 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 9, Iss 22, Pp 8651-8660 (2009) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2009 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T04:58:33Z The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl 2 O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in J Cl 2 O 2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl 2 O 2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl 2 O 2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClO x measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic South pole South pole Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic South Pole |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 M. L. Santee K. Frieler D. J. Hofmann M. Rex P. A. Newman A. R. Douglass R. S. Stolarski S. R. Kawa Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl 2 O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in J Cl 2 O 2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl 2 O 2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl 2 O 2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClO x measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. L. Santee K. Frieler D. J. Hofmann M. Rex P. A. Newman A. R. Douglass R. S. Stolarski S. R. Kawa |
author_facet |
M. L. Santee K. Frieler D. J. Hofmann M. Rex P. A. Newman A. R. Douglass R. S. Stolarski S. R. Kawa |
author_sort |
M. L. Santee |
title |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_short |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_full |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_sort |
sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/80a8550c03cb43b6a223e1d4d9af4b74 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic South Pole |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic South Pole |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic South pole South pole |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic South pole South pole |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 9, Iss 22, Pp 8651-8660 (2009) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/8651/2009/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/80a8550c03cb43b6a223e1d4d9af4b74 |
_version_ |
1766060070560333824 |