Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world
Abstract Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Soc...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:80675290971a4c6291fb644116720ac8 2024-09-09T19:54:33+00:00 Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world Qinxue Gu Melissa Gervais Gokhan Danabasoglu Who M. Kim Frederic Castruccio Elizabeth Maroon Shang-Ping Xie 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 https://doaj.org/article/80675290971a4c6291fb644116720ac8 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/80675290971a4c6291fb644116720ac8 Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2024) Science Q article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 2024-08-05T17:49:22Z Abstract Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nature Communications 15 1 |
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Science Q Qinxue Gu Melissa Gervais Gokhan Danabasoglu Who M. Kim Frederic Castruccio Elizabeth Maroon Shang-Ping Xie Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world |
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Abstract Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Qinxue Gu Melissa Gervais Gokhan Danabasoglu Who M. Kim Frederic Castruccio Elizabeth Maroon Shang-Ping Xie |
author_facet |
Qinxue Gu Melissa Gervais Gokhan Danabasoglu Who M. Kim Frederic Castruccio Elizabeth Maroon Shang-Ping Xie |
author_sort |
Qinxue Gu |
title |
Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world |
title_short |
Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world |
title_full |
Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world |
title_fullStr |
Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world |
title_full_unstemmed |
Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world |
title_sort |
wide range of possible trajectories of north atlantic climate in a warming world |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 https://doaj.org/article/80675290971a4c6291fb644116720ac8 |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/80675290971a4c6291fb644116720ac8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2 |
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Nature Communications |
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15 |
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1 |
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1809923923398098944 |