A Predictive Theory for Heat Transport Into Ice Shelf Cavities

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: G. Finucane, A. L. Stewart
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2024
• Subjects: Physical Oceanography; Cryosphere; ice shelves; sea level rise; Circumpolar deep water; Geophysics. Cosmic physics; QC801-809; Antarc*; Antarctic; Ice Shelf; Ice Shelves
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108196; https://doaj.org/article/802f59dbf4ce49be983dc836e07e8e5c

Abstract Antarctic ice shelves are losing mass at drastically different rates, primarily due to differing rates of oceanic heat supply to their bases. However, a generalized theory for the inflow of relatively warm water into ice shelf cavities is lacking. This study proposes such a theory based on a geostrophically constrained inflow, combined with a threshold bathymetric elevation, the Highest Unconnected isoBath (HUB), that obstructs warm water access to ice shelf grounding lines. This theory captures ∼ 90% of the variance in melt rates across a suite of idealized process‐oriented ocean/ice shelf simulations with quasi‐randomized geometries. Applied to observations of ice shelf geometries and offshore hydrography, the theory captures ∼80% of the variance in measured ice shelf melt rates. These findings provide a generalized theoretical framework for melt resulting from buoyancy‐driven warm water access to geometrically complex Antarctic ice shelf cavities.