How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature.
Abstract The climate is an aggregate of the mean and variability of a range of meteorological variables, notably temperature (T) and precipitation (P). While the impacts of an increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are commonly quantified through changes in regional means and extreme val...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8011fda7e73542f3b4d131bb17215825 2023-05-15T15:10:30+02:00 How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature. Bjørn Hallvard Samset Camilla Weum Stjern Marianne Tronstad Lund Christian Wilhelm Mohr Maria Sand Anne Sophie Daloz 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001160 https://doaj.org/article/8011fda7e73542f3b4d131bb17215825 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001160 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2019EF001160 https://doaj.org/article/8011fda7e73542f3b4d131bb17215825 Earth's Future, Vol 7, Iss 12, Pp 1323-1336 (2019) internal variability climate change regional PDF large ensemble simulations Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001160 2022-12-31T00:56:21Z Abstract The climate is an aggregate of the mean and variability of a range of meteorological variables, notably temperature (T) and precipitation (P). While the impacts of an increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are commonly quantified through changes in regional means and extreme value distributions, a concurrent shift in the shapes of the distributions of daily T and P is arguably equally important. Here, we employ a 30‐member ensemble of coupled climate model simulations (CESM1 LENS) to consistently quantify the changes of regionally and seasonally resolved probability density functions of daily T and P as function of GMST. Focusing on aggregate regions covering both populated and rural zones, we identify large regional and seasonal diversity in the probability density functions and quantify where CESM1 projects the most noticeable changes compared to the preindustrial era. As global temperature increases, Europe and the United States are projected to see a rapid reduction in wintertime cold days, and East Asia to experience a strong increase in intense summertime precipitation. Southern Africa may see a shift to a more intrinsically variable climate but with little change in mean properties. The sensitivities of Arctic and African intrinsic variability to GMST are found to be particularly high. Our results highlight the need to further quantify future changes to daily temperature and precipitation distributions as an integral part of preparing for the societal and ecological impacts of climate change and show how large ensemble simulations can be a useful tool for such research. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Earth's Future 7 12 1323 1336 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
internal variability climate change regional large ensemble simulations Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
internal variability climate change regional large ensemble simulations Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Bjørn Hallvard Samset Camilla Weum Stjern Marianne Tronstad Lund Christian Wilhelm Mohr Maria Sand Anne Sophie Daloz How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature. |
topic_facet |
internal variability climate change regional large ensemble simulations Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract The climate is an aggregate of the mean and variability of a range of meteorological variables, notably temperature (T) and precipitation (P). While the impacts of an increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are commonly quantified through changes in regional means and extreme value distributions, a concurrent shift in the shapes of the distributions of daily T and P is arguably equally important. Here, we employ a 30‐member ensemble of coupled climate model simulations (CESM1 LENS) to consistently quantify the changes of regionally and seasonally resolved probability density functions of daily T and P as function of GMST. Focusing on aggregate regions covering both populated and rural zones, we identify large regional and seasonal diversity in the probability density functions and quantify where CESM1 projects the most noticeable changes compared to the preindustrial era. As global temperature increases, Europe and the United States are projected to see a rapid reduction in wintertime cold days, and East Asia to experience a strong increase in intense summertime precipitation. Southern Africa may see a shift to a more intrinsically variable climate but with little change in mean properties. The sensitivities of Arctic and African intrinsic variability to GMST are found to be particularly high. Our results highlight the need to further quantify future changes to daily temperature and precipitation distributions as an integral part of preparing for the societal and ecological impacts of climate change and show how large ensemble simulations can be a useful tool for such research. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bjørn Hallvard Samset Camilla Weum Stjern Marianne Tronstad Lund Christian Wilhelm Mohr Maria Sand Anne Sophie Daloz |
author_facet |
Bjørn Hallvard Samset Camilla Weum Stjern Marianne Tronstad Lund Christian Wilhelm Mohr Maria Sand Anne Sophie Daloz |
author_sort |
Bjørn Hallvard Samset |
title |
How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature. |
title_short |
How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature. |
title_full |
How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature. |
title_fullStr |
How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature. |
title_full_unstemmed |
How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature. |
title_sort |
how daily temperature and precipitation distributions evolve with global surface temperature. |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001160 https://doaj.org/article/8011fda7e73542f3b4d131bb17215825 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 7, Iss 12, Pp 1323-1336 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001160 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2019EF001160 https://doaj.org/article/8011fda7e73542f3b4d131bb17215825 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001160 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1323 |
op_container_end_page |
1336 |
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1766341527493148672 |