Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

• Main Authors: J. B. Elsner, A. A. Tsonis
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 1994
• Subjects: Science; Q; Physics; QC1-999; Geophysics. Cosmic physics; QC801-809; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://doaj.org/article/7f53bdac2ac24759b3eae81fd14e716a

A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.