The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCAR/NCEP) reanalyses and the daily Pacific North American (PNA) index values from the Climate Prediction Center from 1 January 1950 to 31 December 2016, the utility of the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) and the...
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Hindawi Limited
2017
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/1765428 https://doaj.org/article/7f37ef9dbd4f432ebe70ea8689e4b2c6 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7f37ef9dbd4f432ebe70ea8689e4b2c6 2023-05-15T15:43:32+02:00 The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Joseph S. Renken Joshua J. Herman Travis R. Bradshaw Patrick S. Market Anthony R. Lupo 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/1765428 https://doaj.org/article/7f37ef9dbd4f432ebe70ea8689e4b2c6 EN eng Hindawi Limited http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/1765428 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2017/1765428 https://doaj.org/article/7f37ef9dbd4f432ebe70ea8689e4b2c6 Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2017 (2017) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/1765428 2022-12-31T16:25:06Z Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCAR/NCEP) reanalyses and the daily Pacific North American (PNA) index values from the Climate Prediction Center from 1 January 1950 to 31 December 2016, the utility of the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) and the East Asia Rule (EAR) for making forecasts in the two-to-four-week time frame for the central USA region is examined. It is demonstrated using autocorrelation and Fourier transforms that there may be a degree of predictability in this time frame using the PNA, another teleconnection index, or some variation of them. Neither the BSR nor EAR based forecasts showed skill over climatology in the traditional sense, but using signal detection techniques these indexes were skillful at predicting the onset of anomalous temperature conditions (greater than two standard deviations) in the central USA. The BSR generally produced better results that the EAR and formulae for each index are proposed. Three case studies demonstrate the efficacy of these indexes for forecasting temperatures in the central USA. Then, it is proposed that the success of these indexes is likely due to a strong, quasistationary, and persistent Rossby wave train in the Pacific teleconnection region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Bering Sea Pacific Advances in Meteorology 2017 1 14 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Joseph S. Renken Joshua J. Herman Travis R. Bradshaw Patrick S. Market Anthony R. Lupo The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCAR/NCEP) reanalyses and the daily Pacific North American (PNA) index values from the Climate Prediction Center from 1 January 1950 to 31 December 2016, the utility of the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) and the East Asia Rule (EAR) for making forecasts in the two-to-four-week time frame for the central USA region is examined. It is demonstrated using autocorrelation and Fourier transforms that there may be a degree of predictability in this time frame using the PNA, another teleconnection index, or some variation of them. Neither the BSR nor EAR based forecasts showed skill over climatology in the traditional sense, but using signal detection techniques these indexes were skillful at predicting the onset of anomalous temperature conditions (greater than two standard deviations) in the central USA. The BSR generally produced better results that the EAR and formulae for each index are proposed. Three case studies demonstrate the efficacy of these indexes for forecasting temperatures in the central USA. Then, it is proposed that the success of these indexes is likely due to a strong, quasistationary, and persistent Rossby wave train in the Pacific teleconnection region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Joseph S. Renken Joshua J. Herman Travis R. Bradshaw Patrick S. Market Anthony R. Lupo |
author_facet |
Joseph S. Renken Joshua J. Herman Travis R. Bradshaw Patrick S. Market Anthony R. Lupo |
author_sort |
Joseph S. Renken |
title |
The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting |
title_short |
The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting |
title_full |
The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting |
title_fullStr |
The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting |
title_sort |
utility of the bering sea and east asia rules in long-range forecasting |
publisher |
Hindawi Limited |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/1765428 https://doaj.org/article/7f37ef9dbd4f432ebe70ea8689e4b2c6 |
geographic |
Bering Sea Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea Pacific |
genre |
Bering Sea |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea |
op_source |
Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2017 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/1765428 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2017/1765428 https://doaj.org/article/7f37ef9dbd4f432ebe70ea8689e4b2c6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/1765428 |
container_title |
Advances in Meteorology |
container_volume |
2017 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
14 |
_version_ |
1766377708859686912 |