Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation?
IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ∼100 km resolution models that can misrepresent important processes driving precipitation, such as extratropical cyclone...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a https://doaj.org/article/7f194a4962f64418b8c843010c542520 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7f194a4962f64418b8c843010c542520 2023-09-05T13:21:36+02:00 Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? E Moreno-Chamarro L-P Caron P Ortega S Loosveldt Tomas M J Roberts 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a https://doaj.org/article/7f194a4962f64418b8c843010c542520 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/7f194a4962f64418b8c843010c542520 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 5, p 054063 (2021) European precipitation climate change high-resolution climate modeling CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a 2023-08-13T00:37:14Z IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ∼100 km resolution models that can misrepresent important processes driving precipitation, such as extratropical cyclone activity, and ocean eddies. Here, we show that a pioneering 50 km atmosphere–1/12° ocean global coupled model projects a substantially larger increase in winter precipitation over northwestern Europe by mid-century than lower-resolution configurations. For this increase, both the highest ocean and atmosphere model resolutions are essential: only the eddy-rich (1/12°) ocean projects a progressive northward shift of the Gulf Stream. This leads to a strong regional ocean surface warming that intensifies air–sea heat fluxes and baroclinicity. For this then to translate into a strengthening of North Atlantic extratropical cyclone activity, the 50 km atmosphere is essential, as it enables enhanced diabatic heating from water vapor condensation and an acceleration of the upper-level mean flow, which weaken vertical stability. Our results suggest that all recent IPCC climate projections using traditional ∼100 km resolution models could be underestimating the precipitation increase over Europe in winter and, consequently, the related potential risks. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 16 5 054063 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
European precipitation climate change high-resolution climate modeling CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
European precipitation climate change high-resolution climate modeling CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 E Moreno-Chamarro L-P Caron P Ortega S Loosveldt Tomas M J Roberts Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? |
topic_facet |
European precipitation climate change high-resolution climate modeling CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ∼100 km resolution models that can misrepresent important processes driving precipitation, such as extratropical cyclone activity, and ocean eddies. Here, we show that a pioneering 50 km atmosphere–1/12° ocean global coupled model projects a substantially larger increase in winter precipitation over northwestern Europe by mid-century than lower-resolution configurations. For this increase, both the highest ocean and atmosphere model resolutions are essential: only the eddy-rich (1/12°) ocean projects a progressive northward shift of the Gulf Stream. This leads to a strong regional ocean surface warming that intensifies air–sea heat fluxes and baroclinicity. For this then to translate into a strengthening of North Atlantic extratropical cyclone activity, the 50 km atmosphere is essential, as it enables enhanced diabatic heating from water vapor condensation and an acceleration of the upper-level mean flow, which weaken vertical stability. Our results suggest that all recent IPCC climate projections using traditional ∼100 km resolution models could be underestimating the precipitation increase over Europe in winter and, consequently, the related potential risks. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E Moreno-Chamarro L-P Caron P Ortega S Loosveldt Tomas M J Roberts |
author_facet |
E Moreno-Chamarro L-P Caron P Ortega S Loosveldt Tomas M J Roberts |
author_sort |
E Moreno-Chamarro |
title |
Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? |
title_short |
Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? |
title_full |
Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? |
title_fullStr |
Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? |
title_sort |
can we trust cmip5/6 future projections of european winter precipitation? |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a https://doaj.org/article/7f194a4962f64418b8c843010c542520 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 5, p 054063 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/7f194a4962f64418b8c843010c542520 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054063 |
_version_ |
1776202199251025920 |