Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways
A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This pape...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7ee54f2905304304844b1c859d790b7c 2023-05-15T18:40:44+02:00 Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways R. A. Betts N. Golding P. Gonzalez J. Gornall R. Kahana G. Kay L. Mitchell A. Wiltshire 2015-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 https://doaj.org/article/7ee54f2905304304844b1c859d790b7c EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/1317/2015/bg-12-1317-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 https://doaj.org/article/7ee54f2905304304844b1c859d790b7c Biogeosciences, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 1317-1338 (2015) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 2022-12-31T14:11:57Z A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective – specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources – for four different scenarios following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21st century, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century ranges from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO 2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO 2 rise is less clear, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Biogeosciences 12 5 1317 1338 |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 R. A. Betts N. Golding P. Gonzalez J. Gornall R. Kahana G. Kay L. Mitchell A. Wiltshire Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
topic_facet |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective – specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources – for four different scenarios following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21st century, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century ranges from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO 2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO 2 rise is less clear, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. A. Betts N. Golding P. Gonzalez J. Gornall R. Kahana G. Kay L. Mitchell A. Wiltshire |
author_facet |
R. A. Betts N. Golding P. Gonzalez J. Gornall R. Kahana G. Kay L. Mitchell A. Wiltshire |
author_sort |
R. A. Betts |
title |
Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
title_short |
Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
title_full |
Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
title_fullStr |
Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
title_sort |
climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the hadgem2-es earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 https://doaj.org/article/7ee54f2905304304844b1c859d790b7c |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 1317-1338 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/1317/2015/bg-12-1317-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 https://doaj.org/article/7ee54f2905304304844b1c859d790b7c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 |
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Biogeosciences |
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12 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1317 |
op_container_end_page |
1338 |
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