Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach
Abstract The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the ene...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7ea9b18765064c6f8667bc2cbb22a9ed 2023-05-15T16:29:40+02:00 Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach Noelia Otero Olivia Martius Sam Allen Hannah Bloomfield Bettina Schaefli 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 https://doaj.org/article/7ea9b18765064c6f8667bc2cbb22a9ed EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 https://doaj.org/toc/1350-4827 https://doaj.org/toc/1469-8080 1469-8080 1350-4827 doi:10.1002/met.2089 https://doaj.org/article/7ea9b18765064c6f8667bc2cbb22a9ed Meteorological Applications, Vol 29, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) energy compound events extremes renewable energies weather regimes Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 2022-12-30T20:54:19Z Abstract The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Meteorological Applications 29 5 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
energy compound events extremes renewable energies weather regimes Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
energy compound events extremes renewable energies weather regimes Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Noelia Otero Olivia Martius Sam Allen Hannah Bloomfield Bettina Schaefli Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
topic_facet |
energy compound events extremes renewable energies weather regimes Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Noelia Otero Olivia Martius Sam Allen Hannah Bloomfield Bettina Schaefli |
author_facet |
Noelia Otero Olivia Martius Sam Allen Hannah Bloomfield Bettina Schaefli |
author_sort |
Noelia Otero |
title |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_short |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_full |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_fullStr |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_sort |
characterizing renewable energy compound events across europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 https://doaj.org/article/7ea9b18765064c6f8667bc2cbb22a9ed |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
Meteorological Applications, Vol 29, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 https://doaj.org/toc/1350-4827 https://doaj.org/toc/1469-8080 1469-8080 1350-4827 doi:10.1002/met.2089 https://doaj.org/article/7ea9b18765064c6f8667bc2cbb22a9ed |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 |
container_title |
Meteorological Applications |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
5 |
_version_ |
1766019370848354304 |