Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries.
BACKGROUND:Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is k...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7e9190157e844d0fb5a148e4e7da964e 2023-05-15T15:09:23+02:00 Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. Natsuko Imai Ilaria Dorigatti Simon Cauchemez Neil M Ferguson 2016-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833 https://doaj.org/article/7e9190157e844d0fb5a148e4e7da964e EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4939939?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833 https://doaj.org/article/7e9190157e844d0fb5a148e4e7da964e PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 7, p e0004833 (2016) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833 2022-12-30T23:08:43Z BACKGROUND:Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10 7 e0004833 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Natsuko Imai Ilaria Dorigatti Simon Cauchemez Neil M Ferguson Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND:Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Natsuko Imai Ilaria Dorigatti Simon Cauchemez Neil M Ferguson |
author_facet |
Natsuko Imai Ilaria Dorigatti Simon Cauchemez Neil M Ferguson |
author_sort |
Natsuko Imai |
title |
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. |
title_short |
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. |
title_full |
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. |
title_fullStr |
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. |
title_sort |
estimating dengue transmission intensity from case-notification data from multiple countries. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833 https://doaj.org/article/7e9190157e844d0fb5a148e4e7da964e |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 7, p e0004833 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4939939?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833 https://doaj.org/article/7e9190157e844d0fb5a148e4e7da964e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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10 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e0004833 |
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