Scenarios for the development of the Arctic region (2020–2035)

• Published in: Arctic and North
• Main Authors: Konstantin S. Zaikov, Nikolay A. Kondratov, Elena V. Kudryashova, Svetlana A. Lipina, Anatoliy I. Chistobaev
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; Russian
• Published: Northern Arctic Federal University 2019
• Subjects: the arctic; development strategies; climate change; geopolitics; socio-ecological systems; innovation; Social Sciences; H; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Climate change
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.17238/issn2221-2698.2019.35.5; https://doaj.org/article/7e244c97104f4112820801c0931f67eb

The importance of selecting the development of the Arctic seems to be relevant since rapid and irreversible changes are taking place there. Climate change and globalization are their prominent examples. A complex of factors has both positive and negative impacts on the use of natural resources and the positioning of states located not only within the Arctic but also outside it. The questions arise: what is the significance of these changes for geography, politics, and the management system? How should the comprehension of these processes be built? The relevance of the topic is enhanced by the fact that Russia has the most significant Arctic sector among the states with access to the Arctic Ocean. Therefore, our country has a leading role in working out strategies for the development of the Arctic. The comprehensive approach (considering the economic and political-geographical positions) is central in the article to analyze the directions of development of the Arctic territories. The method reveals the possibilities of sustainable development, which will provide Russia with strategic benefits within the Arctic and globally. The article discusses scenarios for the development of the Arctic, including the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, in the long-term perspective (until 2035). Substantiation of the long-term prospects for the development of the Arctic, despite Russian and foreign research, seems to be unrealistic due to lack of knowledge about the nature and consequences of climatic changes currently observed in this region and affecting global environmental management. The authors concluded that the priority directions of the Arctic development should be the ones based on positive and innovative trends.