Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine mod...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://doaj.org/article/7d546f82778344feb56853ce4db390c1 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7d546f82778344feb56853ce4db390c1 2023-05-15T13:52:39+02:00 Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate Thomas J. Bracegirdle Florence Colleoni Nerilie J. Abram Nancy A. N. Bertler Daniel A. Dixon Mark England Vincent Favier Chris J. Fogwill John C. Fyfe Ian Goodwin Hugues Goosse Will Hobbs Julie M. Jones Elizabeth D. Keller Alia L. Khan Steven J. Phipps Marilyn N. Raphael Joellen Russell Louise Sime Elizabeth R. Thomas Michiel R. van den Broeke Ilana Wainer 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://doaj.org/article/7d546f82778344feb56853ce4db390c1 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/255 https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3263 2076-3263 doi:10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://doaj.org/article/7d546f82778344feb56853ce4db390c1 Geosciences, Vol 9, Iss 6, p 255 (2019) Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 2022-12-30T21:15:26Z Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20 th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21 st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Geosciences 9 6 255 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections Geology QE1-996.5 Thomas J. Bracegirdle Florence Colleoni Nerilie J. Abram Nancy A. N. Bertler Daniel A. Dixon Mark England Vincent Favier Chris J. Fogwill John C. Fyfe Ian Goodwin Hugues Goosse Will Hobbs Julie M. Jones Elizabeth D. Keller Alia L. Khan Steven J. Phipps Marilyn N. Raphael Joellen Russell Louise Sime Elizabeth R. Thomas Michiel R. van den Broeke Ilana Wainer Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
topic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20 th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21 st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thomas J. Bracegirdle Florence Colleoni Nerilie J. Abram Nancy A. N. Bertler Daniel A. Dixon Mark England Vincent Favier Chris J. Fogwill John C. Fyfe Ian Goodwin Hugues Goosse Will Hobbs Julie M. Jones Elizabeth D. Keller Alia L. Khan Steven J. Phipps Marilyn N. Raphael Joellen Russell Louise Sime Elizabeth R. Thomas Michiel R. van den Broeke Ilana Wainer |
author_facet |
Thomas J. Bracegirdle Florence Colleoni Nerilie J. Abram Nancy A. N. Bertler Daniel A. Dixon Mark England Vincent Favier Chris J. Fogwill John C. Fyfe Ian Goodwin Hugues Goosse Will Hobbs Julie M. Jones Elizabeth D. Keller Alia L. Khan Steven J. Phipps Marilyn N. Raphael Joellen Russell Louise Sime Elizabeth R. Thomas Michiel R. van den Broeke Ilana Wainer |
author_sort |
Thomas J. Bracegirdle |
title |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_short |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_full |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_fullStr |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_sort |
back to the future: using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://doaj.org/article/7d546f82778344feb56853ce4db390c1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Geosciences, Vol 9, Iss 6, p 255 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/255 https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3263 2076-3263 doi:10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://doaj.org/article/7d546f82778344feb56853ce4db390c1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 |
container_title |
Geosciences |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
255 |
_version_ |
1766257075367706624 |