Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission.
BACKGROUND: Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significa...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7d3dc2734e4b40e591dd5688be4e252b 2023-05-15T15:14:14+02:00 Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission. Jo-An M Atkinson Gail M Williams Laith Yakob Archie C A Clements Tamsin S Barnes Donald P McManus Yu Rong Yang Darren J Gray 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386 https://doaj.org/article/7d3dc2734e4b40e591dd5688be4e252b EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3757076?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386 https://doaj.org/article/7d3dc2734e4b40e591dd5688be4e252b PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 8, p e2386 (2013) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386 2022-12-31T02:16:11Z BACKGROUND: Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1) the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2) an age structure for animal hosts; 3) the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4) accounting for seasonality; 5) stochastic parameters; and 6) inclusion of spatial and risk structures. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This review discusses the conditions under which these mechanisms may be important for inclusion in models ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 7 8 e2386 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Jo-An M Atkinson Gail M Williams Laith Yakob Archie C A Clements Tamsin S Barnes Donald P McManus Yu Rong Yang Darren J Gray Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission. |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND: Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1) the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2) an age structure for animal hosts; 3) the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4) accounting for seasonality; 5) stochastic parameters; and 6) inclusion of spatial and risk structures. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This review discusses the conditions under which these mechanisms may be important for inclusion in models ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jo-An M Atkinson Gail M Williams Laith Yakob Archie C A Clements Tamsin S Barnes Donald P McManus Yu Rong Yang Darren J Gray |
author_facet |
Jo-An M Atkinson Gail M Williams Laith Yakob Archie C A Clements Tamsin S Barnes Donald P McManus Yu Rong Yang Darren J Gray |
author_sort |
Jo-An M Atkinson |
title |
Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission. |
title_short |
Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission. |
title_full |
Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission. |
title_fullStr |
Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission. |
title_sort |
synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of echinococcus transmission. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386 https://doaj.org/article/7d3dc2734e4b40e591dd5688be4e252b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 8, p e2386 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3757076?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386 https://doaj.org/article/7d3dc2734e4b40e591dd5688be4e252b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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7 |
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8 |
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e2386 |
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