Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model
Abstract To date, the treatment of permafrost in global climate models has been simplified due to the prevailing uncertainties in the processes involving frozen ground. In this study, we improved the modeling of permafrost processes in a state-of-the-art climate model by taking into account some of...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7c3f917622554d3d81d258522ab4c767 2023-05-15T17:55:20+02:00 Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model Tokuta Yokohata Kazuyuki Saito Kumiko Takata Tomoko Nitta Yusuke Satoh Tomohiro Hajima Tetsuo Sueyoshi Go Iwahana 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w https://doaj.org/article/7c3f917622554d3d81d258522ab4c767 EN eng SpringerOpen http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w https://doaj.org/toc/2197-4284 doi:10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w 2197-4284 https://doaj.org/article/7c3f917622554d3d81d258522ab4c767 Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2020) Permafrost degradation Global climate model Climate change Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w 2022-12-31T05:29:07Z Abstract To date, the treatment of permafrost in global climate models has been simplified due to the prevailing uncertainties in the processes involving frozen ground. In this study, we improved the modeling of permafrost processes in a state-of-the-art climate model by taking into account some of the relevant physical properties of soil such as changes in the thermophysical properties due to soil freezing. As a result, the improved version of the global land surface model was able to reproduce a more realistic permafrost distribution at the southern limit of the permafrost area by increasing the freezing of soil moisture in winter. The improved modeling of permafrost processes also had a significant effect on future projections. Using the conventional formulation, the predicted cumulative reduction of the permafrost area by year 2100 was approximately 60% (40–80% range of uncertainty from a multi-model ensemble) in the RCP8.5 scenario, while with the improved formulation, the reduction was approximately 35% (20–50%). Our results indicate that the improved treatment of permafrost processes in global climate models is important to ensuring more reliable future projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Permafrost degradation Global climate model Climate change Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Permafrost degradation Global climate model Climate change Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Geology QE1-996.5 Tokuta Yokohata Kazuyuki Saito Kumiko Takata Tomoko Nitta Yusuke Satoh Tomohiro Hajima Tetsuo Sueyoshi Go Iwahana Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model |
topic_facet |
Permafrost degradation Global climate model Climate change Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Abstract To date, the treatment of permafrost in global climate models has been simplified due to the prevailing uncertainties in the processes involving frozen ground. In this study, we improved the modeling of permafrost processes in a state-of-the-art climate model by taking into account some of the relevant physical properties of soil such as changes in the thermophysical properties due to soil freezing. As a result, the improved version of the global land surface model was able to reproduce a more realistic permafrost distribution at the southern limit of the permafrost area by increasing the freezing of soil moisture in winter. The improved modeling of permafrost processes also had a significant effect on future projections. Using the conventional formulation, the predicted cumulative reduction of the permafrost area by year 2100 was approximately 60% (40–80% range of uncertainty from a multi-model ensemble) in the RCP8.5 scenario, while with the improved formulation, the reduction was approximately 35% (20–50%). Our results indicate that the improved treatment of permafrost processes in global climate models is important to ensuring more reliable future projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tokuta Yokohata Kazuyuki Saito Kumiko Takata Tomoko Nitta Yusuke Satoh Tomohiro Hajima Tetsuo Sueyoshi Go Iwahana |
author_facet |
Tokuta Yokohata Kazuyuki Saito Kumiko Takata Tomoko Nitta Yusuke Satoh Tomohiro Hajima Tetsuo Sueyoshi Go Iwahana |
author_sort |
Tokuta Yokohata |
title |
Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model |
title_short |
Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model |
title_full |
Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model |
title_fullStr |
Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model |
title_sort |
model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model |
publisher |
SpringerOpen |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w https://doaj.org/article/7c3f917622554d3d81d258522ab4c767 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2020) |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w https://doaj.org/toc/2197-4284 doi:10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w 2197-4284 https://doaj.org/article/7c3f917622554d3d81d258522ab4c767 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w |
container_title |
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766163262152376320 |