The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica
Ice sheet models use a wide range of sliding laws to define a relationship between ice velocity and basal drag, generally comprising some combination of a Weertman-style power law and Coulomb friction. The exact nature of basal sliding is not known from observational data, making assessment of the s...
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2022
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7bf07a5f0e034475b465c7a2bb0ca7d5 2023-05-15T13:38:40+02:00 The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica J. M. Barnes G. H. Gudmundsson 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022 https://doaj.org/article/7bf07a5f0e034475b465c7a2bb0ca7d5 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4291/2022/tc-16-4291-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/7bf07a5f0e034475b465c7a2bb0ca7d5 The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 4291-4304 (2022) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022 2022-12-30T23:12:00Z Ice sheet models use a wide range of sliding laws to define a relationship between ice velocity and basal drag, generally comprising some combination of a Weertman-style power law and Coulomb friction. The exact nature of basal sliding is not known from observational data, making assessment of the suitability of different sliding laws difficult. The question of how much this choice could affect predictions of future ice sheet evolution is an important one. Here we conduct a model study of a large sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), a particularly critical component of the cryosphere, using a range of sliding parameterisations, and we provide an assessment of the sensitivity of ice loss to the choice of sliding law. We show that, after initialisation, various sliding laws result in broadly similar ranges of sea level contribution over 100 years, with the range primarily dependent on exact parameter values used in each sliding law. Comparing mass loss from Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers and the neighbouring regions reveals significant qualitative geographical differences in the relationship between sliding parameters and the modelled response to changes in forcing. We show that the responses do not necessarily follow universal systematic patterns, and, in particular, higher values of the sliding exponent m do not necessarily imply larger rates of mass loss. Despite differences in the magnitudes of ice loss and rates of change in the system, all of our experiments display broad similarities in behaviour which serve to reinforce the decade-to-century-scale predictive power of ice sheet models, regardless of the choice of basal sliding. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island The Cryosphere West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Weertman ENVELOPE(-67.753,-67.753,-66.972,-66.972) West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica The Cryosphere 16 10 4291 4304 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. M. Barnes G. H. Gudmundsson The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Ice sheet models use a wide range of sliding laws to define a relationship between ice velocity and basal drag, generally comprising some combination of a Weertman-style power law and Coulomb friction. The exact nature of basal sliding is not known from observational data, making assessment of the suitability of different sliding laws difficult. The question of how much this choice could affect predictions of future ice sheet evolution is an important one. Here we conduct a model study of a large sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), a particularly critical component of the cryosphere, using a range of sliding parameterisations, and we provide an assessment of the sensitivity of ice loss to the choice of sliding law. We show that, after initialisation, various sliding laws result in broadly similar ranges of sea level contribution over 100 years, with the range primarily dependent on exact parameter values used in each sliding law. Comparing mass loss from Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers and the neighbouring regions reveals significant qualitative geographical differences in the relationship between sliding parameters and the modelled response to changes in forcing. We show that the responses do not necessarily follow universal systematic patterns, and, in particular, higher values of the sliding exponent m do not necessarily imply larger rates of mass loss. Despite differences in the magnitudes of ice loss and rates of change in the system, all of our experiments display broad similarities in behaviour which serve to reinforce the decade-to-century-scale predictive power of ice sheet models, regardless of the choice of basal sliding. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. M. Barnes G. H. Gudmundsson |
author_facet |
J. M. Barnes G. H. Gudmundsson |
author_sort |
J. M. Barnes |
title |
The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica |
title_short |
The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica |
title_full |
The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica |
title_sort |
predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of pine island and thwaites glaciers, west antarctica |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022 https://doaj.org/article/7bf07a5f0e034475b465c7a2bb0ca7d5 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-67.753,-67.753,-66.972,-66.972) |
geographic |
Antarctic Weertman West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Weertman West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 4291-4304 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4291/2022/tc-16-4291-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/7bf07a5f0e034475b465c7a2bb0ca7d5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
4291 |
op_container_end_page |
4304 |
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1766109242537803776 |