Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections
Abstract Marine heatwave (MHW) characteristics, such as total days, average duration, and mean intensity, have increased in most global oceans. In contrast, marine cold‐spell (MCS) characteristics have a decreasing trend over most regions. However, the difference between MHW and MCS in the mean and...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7b56c73ee26844d0af5e6c491bf0f821 2024-01-14T10:09:07+01:00 Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections Yulong Yao Chunzai Wang Yao Fu 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002787 https://doaj.org/article/7b56c73ee26844d0af5e6c491bf0f821 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002787 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF002787 https://doaj.org/article/7b56c73ee26844d0af5e6c491bf0f821 Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 11, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002787 2023-12-17T01:42:03Z Abstract Marine heatwave (MHW) characteristics, such as total days, average duration, and mean intensity, have increased in most global oceans. In contrast, marine cold‐spell (MCS) characteristics have a decreasing trend over most regions. However, the difference between MHW and MCS in the mean and trend in the present and future climate is unclear. Here, we provide a comparative global assessment of these changes based on satellite sea surface temperature for 1982–2020 and climate model projections for 2021–2070. Globally, there are clear differences in the mean and trend between MHW and MCS metrics. On seasonal timescales, MHWs mainly occur in summer and autumn, while MCSs generally occur in winter and spring. The occurrence area of MHWs shows an increasing trend during 1982–2020, while the occurrence area of MCSs shows an opposite trend. Furthermore, the increasing trend in MHW average duration led to a near‐permanent MHW status in the future projections. Upper‐ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing is closely related to increase in MHWs and decrease in MCSs. In addition, the shallower ocean mixed layer depth in the future is favorable for the occurrence of MHWs. In contrast, the projected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation facilitates the occurrence of MCSs in the subpolar North Atlantic. These results provide a global baseline for the difference and relationship between MHW and MCS under present climate and future projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth's Future 10 11 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Yulong Yao Chunzai Wang Yao Fu Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Marine heatwave (MHW) characteristics, such as total days, average duration, and mean intensity, have increased in most global oceans. In contrast, marine cold‐spell (MCS) characteristics have a decreasing trend over most regions. However, the difference between MHW and MCS in the mean and trend in the present and future climate is unclear. Here, we provide a comparative global assessment of these changes based on satellite sea surface temperature for 1982–2020 and climate model projections for 2021–2070. Globally, there are clear differences in the mean and trend between MHW and MCS metrics. On seasonal timescales, MHWs mainly occur in summer and autumn, while MCSs generally occur in winter and spring. The occurrence area of MHWs shows an increasing trend during 1982–2020, while the occurrence area of MCSs shows an opposite trend. Furthermore, the increasing trend in MHW average duration led to a near‐permanent MHW status in the future projections. Upper‐ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing is closely related to increase in MHWs and decrease in MCSs. In addition, the shallower ocean mixed layer depth in the future is favorable for the occurrence of MHWs. In contrast, the projected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation facilitates the occurrence of MCSs in the subpolar North Atlantic. These results provide a global baseline for the difference and relationship between MHW and MCS under present climate and future projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yulong Yao Chunzai Wang Yao Fu |
author_facet |
Yulong Yao Chunzai Wang Yao Fu |
author_sort |
Yulong Yao |
title |
Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections |
title_short |
Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections |
title_full |
Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections |
title_fullStr |
Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections |
title_sort |
global marine heatwaves and cold‐spells in present climate to future projections |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002787 https://doaj.org/article/7b56c73ee26844d0af5e6c491bf0f821 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 11, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002787 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF002787 https://doaj.org/article/7b56c73ee26844d0af5e6c491bf0f821 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002787 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
11 |
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1788063573084209152 |