Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability?
Marine populations often show considerable variation in their productivity, including regime shifts. Of special interest are prolonged shifts to low recruitment and low abundance which occur in many fish populations despite reductions in fishing pressure. One of the possible causes for the lack of r...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354 https://doaj.org/article/7b30ed4be84448d8b6f3b7bf438d917d |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7b30ed4be84448d8b6f3b7bf438d917d 2023-11-12T04:14:23+01:00 Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? Maria Tirronen Jochen Depestele Anna Kuparinen 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354 https://doaj.org/article/7b30ed4be84448d8b6f3b7bf438d917d EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354 https://doaj.org/article/7b30ed4be84448d8b6f3b7bf438d917d Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 10 (2023) Allee effect environmental forcing non-linear recruitment dynamics regime shifts population recovery Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354 2023-10-15T00:37:19Z Marine populations often show considerable variation in their productivity, including regime shifts. Of special interest are prolonged shifts to low recruitment and low abundance which occur in many fish populations despite reductions in fishing pressure. One of the possible causes for the lack of recovery has been suggested to be the Allee effect (depensation). Nonetheless, both regime shifts and the Allee effect are empirically emerging patterns but provide no explanation about the underlying mechanisms. Environmental forcing, on the other hand, is known to induce population fluctuations and has also been suggested as one of the primary challenges for recovery. In the present study, we build upon recently developed Bayesian change-point models to explore the contribution of food and climate as external drivers in recruitment regime shifts, while accounting for density-dependent mechanisms (compensation and depensation). Food availability is approximated by the copepod community. Temperature is included as a climatic driver. Three demersal fish populations in the Irish Sea are studied: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), whiting (Merlangius merlangus) and common sole (Solea solea). We demonstrate that, while spawning stock biomass undoubtedly impacts recruitment, abiotic and biotic drivers can have substantial additional impacts, which can explain regime shifts in recruitment dynamics or low recruitment at low population abundances. Our results stress the importance of environmental forcing to capture variability in fish recruitment. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Frontiers in Marine Science 10 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Allee effect environmental forcing non-linear recruitment dynamics regime shifts population recovery Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
Allee effect environmental forcing non-linear recruitment dynamics regime shifts population recovery Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Maria Tirronen Jochen Depestele Anna Kuparinen Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? |
topic_facet |
Allee effect environmental forcing non-linear recruitment dynamics regime shifts population recovery Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Marine populations often show considerable variation in their productivity, including regime shifts. Of special interest are prolonged shifts to low recruitment and low abundance which occur in many fish populations despite reductions in fishing pressure. One of the possible causes for the lack of recovery has been suggested to be the Allee effect (depensation). Nonetheless, both regime shifts and the Allee effect are empirically emerging patterns but provide no explanation about the underlying mechanisms. Environmental forcing, on the other hand, is known to induce population fluctuations and has also been suggested as one of the primary challenges for recovery. In the present study, we build upon recently developed Bayesian change-point models to explore the contribution of food and climate as external drivers in recruitment regime shifts, while accounting for density-dependent mechanisms (compensation and depensation). Food availability is approximated by the copepod community. Temperature is included as a climatic driver. Three demersal fish populations in the Irish Sea are studied: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), whiting (Merlangius merlangus) and common sole (Solea solea). We demonstrate that, while spawning stock biomass undoubtedly impacts recruitment, abiotic and biotic drivers can have substantial additional impacts, which can explain regime shifts in recruitment dynamics or low recruitment at low population abundances. Our results stress the importance of environmental forcing to capture variability in fish recruitment. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maria Tirronen Jochen Depestele Anna Kuparinen |
author_facet |
Maria Tirronen Jochen Depestele Anna Kuparinen |
author_sort |
Maria Tirronen |
title |
Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? |
title_short |
Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? |
title_full |
Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? |
title_fullStr |
Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? |
title_sort |
can regime shifts in reproduction be explained by changing climate and food availability? |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354 https://doaj.org/article/7b30ed4be84448d8b6f3b7bf438d917d |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 10 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354 https://doaj.org/article/7b30ed4be84448d8b6f3b7bf438d917d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167354 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
10 |
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1782332061964566528 |