ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES
The paper assesses the present-day state and long-term forecast of intrasecular oscillations of water level in large Eurasian lakes. The analysis of the North Atlantic climate change influence on the catchments hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea and Ladoga and Onega lakes was made on the basis o...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7ab35f5b8fe7406bace1e436961a86da 2023-05-15T17:31:07+02:00 ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES Tatiana Vyruchalkina Nikolai Filatov Nikolai Diansky Anatoly Gusev 2016-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.17076/lim480 https://doaj.org/article/7ab35f5b8fe7406bace1e436961a86da EN RU eng rus Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences http://journals.krc.karelia.ru/index.php/limnology/article/view/480 https://doaj.org/toc/1997-3217 https://doaj.org/toc/2312-4504 1997-3217 2312-4504 doi:10.17076/lim480 https://doaj.org/article/7ab35f5b8fe7406bace1e436961a86da Transactions of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Iss 9, Pp 3-16 (2016) forecast water level lakes climate variability Science Q article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.17076/lim480 2022-12-31T03:47:47Z The paper assesses the present-day state and long-term forecast of intrasecular oscillations of water level in large Eurasian lakes. The analysis of the North Atlantic climate change influence on the catchments hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea and Ladoga and Onega lakes was made on the basis of the reanalysis data and numerical simulation results. The connection between some indexes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation describing climatic variability of the North Atlantic and Europe and hydrological regime of Volga and Neva rivers basins was estimated. The paper investigates the causal effects between climatic characteristics and catchments hydrological regime and the lakes water level. Several years’ time lag of hydrological regime (rivers runoff, the Caspian Sea level) response to changes in atmospheric circulation was shown. The dynamics of precipitation in the Caspian catchment correspond to changes in circulation indexes. Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the European part of Russia in the 21st century was estimated using the combined scenario of climate changes based on the hybrid of greenhouse and cyclic effects. The simulation results reveal possible decrease of moisture transport and atmospheric precipitation over the European part of Russia for the next 15-20 years resulting (with several years’ time lag) in the ongoing water level decrease in the Caspian Sea and Lake Ladoga. Moisture transport increase is expected from around 2035 to 2070, which will presumably lead to precipitation increase and water level rise in these water bodies. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Onega ENVELOPE(38.100,38.100,63.900,63.900) Neva ENVELOPE(15.407,15.407,68.061,68.061) Proceedings of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences 9 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English Russian |
topic |
forecast water level lakes climate variability Science Q |
spellingShingle |
forecast water level lakes climate variability Science Q Tatiana Vyruchalkina Nikolai Filatov Nikolai Diansky Anatoly Gusev ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES |
topic_facet |
forecast water level lakes climate variability Science Q |
description |
The paper assesses the present-day state and long-term forecast of intrasecular oscillations of water level in large Eurasian lakes. The analysis of the North Atlantic climate change influence on the catchments hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea and Ladoga and Onega lakes was made on the basis of the reanalysis data and numerical simulation results. The connection between some indexes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation describing climatic variability of the North Atlantic and Europe and hydrological regime of Volga and Neva rivers basins was estimated. The paper investigates the causal effects between climatic characteristics and catchments hydrological regime and the lakes water level. Several years’ time lag of hydrological regime (rivers runoff, the Caspian Sea level) response to changes in atmospheric circulation was shown. The dynamics of precipitation in the Caspian catchment correspond to changes in circulation indexes. Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the European part of Russia in the 21st century was estimated using the combined scenario of climate changes based on the hybrid of greenhouse and cyclic effects. The simulation results reveal possible decrease of moisture transport and atmospheric precipitation over the European part of Russia for the next 15-20 years resulting (with several years’ time lag) in the ongoing water level decrease in the Caspian Sea and Lake Ladoga. Moisture transport increase is expected from around 2035 to 2070, which will presumably lead to precipitation increase and water level rise in these water bodies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tatiana Vyruchalkina Nikolai Filatov Nikolai Diansky Anatoly Gusev |
author_facet |
Tatiana Vyruchalkina Nikolai Filatov Nikolai Diansky Anatoly Gusev |
author_sort |
Tatiana Vyruchalkina |
title |
ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES |
title_short |
ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES |
title_full |
ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES |
title_fullStr |
ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES |
title_full_unstemmed |
ON FORECASTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF WATER LEVEL IN LARGE LAKES |
title_sort |
on forecasting long-term variations of water level in large lakes |
publisher |
Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17076/lim480 https://doaj.org/article/7ab35f5b8fe7406bace1e436961a86da |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(38.100,38.100,63.900,63.900) ENVELOPE(15.407,15.407,68.061,68.061) |
geographic |
Onega Neva |
geographic_facet |
Onega Neva |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Transactions of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Iss 9, Pp 3-16 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://journals.krc.karelia.ru/index.php/limnology/article/view/480 https://doaj.org/toc/1997-3217 https://doaj.org/toc/2312-4504 1997-3217 2312-4504 doi:10.17076/lim480 https://doaj.org/article/7ab35f5b8fe7406bace1e436961a86da |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17076/lim480 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences |
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9 |
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