Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
Abstract Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forc...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7a9a6559515b44ed99cfdb51136f2f78 2023-05-15T14:50:52+02:00 Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 https://doaj.org/article/7a9a6559515b44ed99cfdb51136f2f78 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/7a9a6559515b44ed99cfdb51136f2f78 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2022) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 2022-12-30T23:50:56Z Abstract Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s–1970s. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s–1970s. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis |
author_facet |
Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis |
author_sort |
Nour-Eddine Omrani |
title |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_short |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_full |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_fullStr |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_sort |
coupled stratosphere-troposphere-atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 https://doaj.org/article/7a9a6559515b44ed99cfdb51136f2f78 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/7a9a6559515b44ed99cfdb51136f2f78 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766321936865951744 |