Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year.
When humanity confronts the risk of extinction of species, many people invoke precautions, especially in the face of uncertainty. Although precautionary approaches are value judgments, the optimal design and effect of precautions or lack thereof are scientific questions. We investigated Wisconsin gr...
Published in: | PLOS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 https://doaj.org/article/7a59c6f3ff3e4918aef0b486871c1212 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7a59c6f3ff3e4918aef0b486871c1212 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7a59c6f3ff3e4918aef0b486871c1212 2023-05-15T15:51:00+02:00 Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. Adrian Treves Naomi X Louchouarn 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 https://doaj.org/article/7a59c6f3ff3e4918aef0b486871c1212 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 https://doaj.org/article/7a59c6f3ff3e4918aef0b486871c1212 PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 3, p e0259604 (2022) Medicine R Science Q article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 2022-12-31T00:49:27Z When humanity confronts the risk of extinction of species, many people invoke precautions, especially in the face of uncertainty. Although precautionary approaches are value judgments, the optimal design and effect of precautions or lack thereof are scientific questions. We investigated Wisconsin gray wolves Canis lupus facing a second wolf-hunt in November 2021 and use three legal thresholds as the societal value judgments about precautions: (1) the 1999 population goal, 350 wolves, (2) the threshold for statutory listing under the state threatened and endangered species act, 250 wolves; and (3) state extirpation <2 wolves. This allows us to explore the quantitative relationship between precaution and uncertainty. Working from estimates of the size wolf population in April 2021 and reproduction to November, we constructed a simple linear model with uninformative priors for the period April 2021-April 2022 including an uncertain wolf-hunt in November 2021. Our first result is that the state government under-counted wolf deaths in the year preceding both wolf-hunts. We recommend better scientific analysis be used when setting wolf-hunt quotas. We find official recommendations for a quota for the November 2021 wolf-hunt risk undesirable outcomes. Even a quota of zero has a 13% chance of crossing threshold 1. Therefore, a zero death toll would be precautionary. Proponents for high quotas bear the burden of proof that their estimates are accurate, precise, and reproducible. We discuss why our approach is transferable to non-wolves. We show how scientists have the tools and concepts for quantifying and explaining the probabilities of crossing thresholds set by laws or other social norms. We recommend that scientists grapple with data gaps by explaining what the uncertainty means for policy and the public including the consequences of being wrong. Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles PLOS ONE 17 3 e0259604 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
spellingShingle |
Medicine R Science Q Adrian Treves Naomi X Louchouarn Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
When humanity confronts the risk of extinction of species, many people invoke precautions, especially in the face of uncertainty. Although precautionary approaches are value judgments, the optimal design and effect of precautions or lack thereof are scientific questions. We investigated Wisconsin gray wolves Canis lupus facing a second wolf-hunt in November 2021 and use three legal thresholds as the societal value judgments about precautions: (1) the 1999 population goal, 350 wolves, (2) the threshold for statutory listing under the state threatened and endangered species act, 250 wolves; and (3) state extirpation <2 wolves. This allows us to explore the quantitative relationship between precaution and uncertainty. Working from estimates of the size wolf population in April 2021 and reproduction to November, we constructed a simple linear model with uninformative priors for the period April 2021-April 2022 including an uncertain wolf-hunt in November 2021. Our first result is that the state government under-counted wolf deaths in the year preceding both wolf-hunts. We recommend better scientific analysis be used when setting wolf-hunt quotas. We find official recommendations for a quota for the November 2021 wolf-hunt risk undesirable outcomes. Even a quota of zero has a 13% chance of crossing threshold 1. Therefore, a zero death toll would be precautionary. Proponents for high quotas bear the burden of proof that their estimates are accurate, precise, and reproducible. We discuss why our approach is transferable to non-wolves. We show how scientists have the tools and concepts for quantifying and explaining the probabilities of crossing thresholds set by laws or other social norms. We recommend that scientists grapple with data gaps by explaining what the uncertainty means for policy and the public including the consequences of being wrong. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Adrian Treves Naomi X Louchouarn |
author_facet |
Adrian Treves Naomi X Louchouarn |
author_sort |
Adrian Treves |
title |
Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. |
title_short |
Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. |
title_full |
Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. |
title_sort |
uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 https://doaj.org/article/7a59c6f3ff3e4918aef0b486871c1212 |
genre |
Canis lupus |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 3, p e0259604 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 https://doaj.org/article/7a59c6f3ff3e4918aef0b486871c1212 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259604 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
e0259604 |
_version_ |
1766386028767084544 |