The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability
Earth's climate exhibits internal modes of variability on various timescales. Here we investigate multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent and global mean temperature (GMT) in an ensemble of CMIP5 models under contro...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7a3f02451e6643c98e8e964b6bc735b9 2023-05-15T17:29:43+02:00 The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability C. F. Schleussner J. Runge J. Lehmann A. Levermann 2014-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014 https://doaj.org/article/7a3f02451e6643c98e8e964b6bc735b9 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/103/2014/esd-5-103-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 2190-4979 2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-5-103-2014 https://doaj.org/article/7a3f02451e6643c98e8e964b6bc735b9 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 103-115 (2014) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014 2022-12-31T07:22:01Z Earth's climate exhibits internal modes of variability on various timescales. Here we investigate multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent and global mean temperature (GMT) in an ensemble of CMIP5 models under control conditions. We report an inter-annual GMT variability of about ±0.1° C originating solely from natural variability in the model ensemble. By decomposing the GMT variance into contributions of the AMOC and Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent using a graph-theoretical statistical approach, we find the AMOC to contribute 8% to GMT variability in the ensemble mean. Our results highlight the importance of AMOC sea-ice feedbacks that explain 5% of the GMT variance, while the contribution solely related to the AMOC is found to be about 3%. As a consequence of multi-decadal AMOC variability, we report substantial variations in North Atlantic deep-ocean heat content with trends of up to 0.7 × 10 22 J decade −1 that are of the order of observed changes over the last decade and consistent with the reduced GMT warming trend over this period. Although these temperature anomalies are largely density-compensated by salinity changes, we find a robust negative correlation between the AMOC and North Atlantic deep-ocean density with density lagging the AMOC by 5 to 11 yr in most models. While this would in principle allow for a self-sustained oscillatory behavior of the coupled AMOC–deep-ocean system, our results are inconclusive about the role of this feedback in the model ensemble. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 5 1 103 115 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 C. F. Schleussner J. Runge J. Lehmann A. Levermann The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Earth's climate exhibits internal modes of variability on various timescales. Here we investigate multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent and global mean temperature (GMT) in an ensemble of CMIP5 models under control conditions. We report an inter-annual GMT variability of about ±0.1° C originating solely from natural variability in the model ensemble. By decomposing the GMT variance into contributions of the AMOC and Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent using a graph-theoretical statistical approach, we find the AMOC to contribute 8% to GMT variability in the ensemble mean. Our results highlight the importance of AMOC sea-ice feedbacks that explain 5% of the GMT variance, while the contribution solely related to the AMOC is found to be about 3%. As a consequence of multi-decadal AMOC variability, we report substantial variations in North Atlantic deep-ocean heat content with trends of up to 0.7 × 10 22 J decade −1 that are of the order of observed changes over the last decade and consistent with the reduced GMT warming trend over this period. Although these temperature anomalies are largely density-compensated by salinity changes, we find a robust negative correlation between the AMOC and North Atlantic deep-ocean density with density lagging the AMOC by 5 to 11 yr in most models. While this would in principle allow for a self-sustained oscillatory behavior of the coupled AMOC–deep-ocean system, our results are inconclusive about the role of this feedback in the model ensemble. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. F. Schleussner J. Runge J. Lehmann A. Levermann |
author_facet |
C. F. Schleussner J. Runge J. Lehmann A. Levermann |
author_sort |
C. F. Schleussner |
title |
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability |
title_short |
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability |
title_full |
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability |
title_fullStr |
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability |
title_sort |
role of the north atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014 https://doaj.org/article/7a3f02451e6643c98e8e964b6bc735b9 |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 103-115 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/103/2014/esd-5-103-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 2190-4979 2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-5-103-2014 https://doaj.org/article/7a3f02451e6643c98e8e964b6bc735b9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
103 |
op_container_end_page |
115 |
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1766124506117570560 |